Re: The flat earth society
by
lloyd667
08/14/2008, 8:25 AM #
Cons,
Lots of things would convince me out of global warming.
I have already written several times her in the Fray that if someone came up with an alternative mechanism (to our carbon emissions) to explain the facts, and this alternative stood up to scientific scrutiny, then that would be that. We would then have a better explanation, and I think we should adjust our policies accordingly.
The fact is that so far no such alternative has appeared. Contrary to your unfounded claims, global temperatures are rising and, at the moment, the only scientifically viable explanation is our burning of fossil fuel. To sit around and just deny it is irrational.
Indeed, the only odd thing about this business is that so many people are in denial. What is it about global warming, of all things, that has sparked this populist backlash, which you so ably articulate? I can understand, although I don't of course agree with, the equally irrational religious backlash against evolution: it is impossible to reconcile evolution--indeed, modern science in general--with a literal reading of the Bible. (One of the charming things about many religious deniers of evolution is that the freely admit that it is irrational--that is, based on faith. The same cannot be said for the proponents of intelligent design.)
Even if there were no alternative explanations, it is possible that global warming is our friend, rather than something to fear, although, sadly, so far this does not seem to be the case, either. To take an extreme example, a new ice age would be a disaster for sure. If someone came up with a convincing case that a new ice age was about to dawn, then I would say that global warming (that is, manmade global warming--see below) could obviously be a good thing; insurance, as it were, against freezing over.
What is not going to convince me is statements that science has not "proved" the existence of global warming, especially when it is coupled with references to Popper, whose view of science has long been discredited.
Science comes up with reality-based explanations for observed phenomena. The reality-based explanation for global warming is our combustion of fossil fuels. As I said, that could change with some new discovery. I doubt it, but predicting the future is tricky business.
And, to end up, the last bit I promised above. We should be careful what we are talking about here. When we say "global warming" we could mean at least two things: the observation that global temperatures are rising; or the theory that that rise is being caused by the activities of people (anthropogenisis). I am talking about the second. Therefore, another thing that would not convince me is if the global temperature started to fall. I guess there are lots of factors that affect global temperatures, one of which (by all available scientific evidence, the dominant one these days) is our burning of fossil fuel. The observation of falling global temperatures would, as I indicated above, change my view about the consequences of anthropogenic global warming. I guess they would be much more benign, but even that could depend on why global temperatures were falling (for instance, if the fall will be sustained, as in the next ice age).
I hope that clarifies things.