Dear Mr. or Ms. Neolefty:
Thank you for reading my post and for responding in such great detail. I will try to respond point by point but I may get tired and give up before I finish. Suffice it to say it won't be because I didn't think you were in error, but simply because my endurance did not exceed your ignorance.
If Iraq was already defeated after Gulf War 1 then Germany was defeated after 1918 and could not pose a threat to anyone in 1939. The many years of peace that followed 1939 is sufficient proof of this fact.
Sorry, but this too is another absurd comparison. The comparison between the progress made by Germany between 1918 and 1939 (21 years) as opposed to what Iraq might have achieved in 11 years is a non starter. Germany were not under UN sanctions or subject to weapons inspections. In fact, Germany was welcomed back into the international military and business community.
Perhaps you do not remember the Armistice, the League of Nations,the occupation of the Rhineland and the allied bridgeheads, the Treaty of Versailled, the war guilt clause, the loss of territory to Poland and other countries, the reparations, the limitations on German military forces and the banning of the German military draft? To say that Germany was "welcomed back into the international military and business community" is insane. The failure was in not asserting international rights when Hitler violated Germany's commitments and in not requiring Germany obedience to its obligations under the League of Nations. Germany faced just as many if not more limitations on its sovereignty after 1918 as Iraq after 1991. Germany violated all its post-World War I agreements and rearmed with the intention of making war and obtaining regional if not world domination. Germany and Iraq were obviously different magnitudes of threat to world peace but Iraq was very definite a threat to world peace in 2003. It had violated all its international commitments and was every bit as capable of endangering the peace of its region as Germany was in 1939, Luckily, the US under President Bush did not allow Saddam to get away with what the Western Allies permitted to Hitler.
Whether Japan and Gemrany (sic) were allies is immaterial. Whether Iraq and Al Qaeda were sworn enemies is immaterial. Neither makes any difference to my argument.
On the contrary. Germany and Japan were part of the same war. They were essentially the same enemy and which is telling, because the Bush administration went out of their way to link Saddam with AQ, even though no such connection ever existed.
You are losing track of things. If Germany and Japan were "both part of the same war," then it doesn't matter which one attacked us first and which one declared war. We were equally entitled to attack whichever one we chose. By the same token al Qaida and Iraq are every bit as much the same enemy as Germany, Japan, Italy, and their various allies were in World War II, and we had every bit the same right and duty to destroy them as we did our enemies in 1939-1945. Both al Qaida and Saddam had been attacking us regularly since 1992 we had every bit as much right to attack the one as the other.
I only pointed out that the Isolationist Right favored concentrating on Japan which had attacked the US, while the Internationalist Left favored concentrating on the greater enemy Germany, which had not actually attacked us at that point.
No but they did declare war against us.
You are seriously confused. Both Japan and Germany declared war on us. The former did so after they attacked us, the latter waited until after the declaration. The fact that Germany actually declared war before they made war should be a point in their favor. Are you seriously contending thta the US should have concentrated on fighting the Japanese and not the Germans? Earlier you argued that they were part of the same war. That would seem to indicate that it didn't matter who we attacked first. In my opinion both Iraq and al Qaida were in a state of war with the US from 1992 onward and that it was only a matter of timing when we chose to reply. Almost before the ink was dry, Iraq violated its agreements with the US and its Coalition allies and thus reinstated the state of war that had existed prior to the armistice agreement of 1992. If that was not enough they declared war on us by firing at the planes enforcing the no-fly zone and by subverting the food for peace program. These were every as much an act of war as was al Qaida attack on the twin towers. You are the one who argues that we should concentrate on attacking the Taliban because they attacked us. Iraq also attacked the US.
In other words that, as in World War II, it might make sense to first overthrow the dictator with hundreds of thousands of men under arms before finishing off the immediate aggressor.
This argument makes about as much sense as Douglas Feith’s idea that we should have attacked a country like Brazil after 911 just to prove to the world we were serious. Saddam had no military. He had no army. He had no arms for that matter. As we are witnessing in Afghanistan, nor was he the more dangerous proposition. In fact, he never so much as threatened the US, and was only our enemy because we decided he was no longer of use to us.
Of course Saddam has no army now. We liquidated it. But before the war, that was not the argument used by the anti-war forces. The anti-war argument was all about how great Saddam's military was: how it was going to cause tens of thousands of US casualties with conventional, chemical, and possibly nuclear weapons, how the Arab "street" was going to rise up against the US, how he was going to send missiles into Israel and other allied countries. None of this has come to pass. Now you magically eliminate all Saddam's military assets. Regarding Afghanistan, you again don't know what you're talking about. We toppled the Taliban and gutted al Qaida in Afghanistan with a couple of hundred special forces men. Was that a greater threat than Saddam and his 400 - 500,000 troops and his oil wealth? The Taliban and al Qaida still operate from the tribal regions of Pakistan but they are a shadow of their former selves and cannot operate throughout Afghanistan as they could before. We should continue to press them by every means available but they are not a serious threat to overthrow the Karzai government or to force US and NATO out of the country. Our success in Afghanistan has been based on a knowledge of the people and the country built up over several decades starting with the mujahadeen campaign against the Soviets. The worst possible thing we could do would be to bring in a massive US force and basically occupy the country like the Soviets did.
The Taliban and al Qaida are not going anywhere soon, we will deal with them soon enough. In this age, when a dozen men with box cutters can kill 3,000 New Yorkers in a morning's work, no American leader can blithely assume, like you, that Hussan posed 'no threat". It is risible to believe that he would fail to take advantage of any opportunity to attack the US.
On the contrary. Those men with box cutters showed how impotent AQ really are. They needed American planes after all, to launch the attack. It was their hail mary. As for Iraq, there is no longer any debate we were lied into this war. In fact, Saddam posed so little a threat that the war party had to manufacture a false pitcture of him in order to frighten the public into believing the war was necessary. Even if he had the opportunity to attack the US, were is the evidence that he would ever have taken it. Saddam was a thug, but he was a survivor, not a man with a death wish.
So, I guess your argument is that it doesn't count if you get killed with an imported or highjacked weapon. It only matters if you made the weapon domestically. The fact that al Qaida doesn't make its weapons adds to the threat of terrorism. I guess it doesn't matter either if you get killed by an "impotent". To my mind you're dead either way. Secondly, if the so-called "impotent" al Qaida terrorists could kill several thousand Americans in a few minutes, with nothing more than a few box cutters and an evil idea, it makes the threat from Saddam even greater not lesser.
Regarding the status of the war against terror, al Qaida seems to disagree with you. They seem to accept that they have been defeated in the Central Front of their battle against the US and they are repositioning themselves in droves from Iraq to Afghanistan even as we speak.
Really? The NIE seems to disagree with you.
Groups like AQ know they will never win a pitch battle against a military force like the US. Hell, they know they didn't even stand a chance against Saddam. AQ's rasion d'etre is to launch launch attacks that will provoke an over reactin from the US, which in turn provokes outrage in the Arab world, which is where they draw their support.
You are confusing AQ with insurgents (ie. Iraqi people who are resisting our occupation of their land). Al Qaeda have been guted, bugt it was in Afghanistan that they suffered their greatest losses. As for giving cedence to what AQ says, I would advise caution. Zawahiri said he prayed that the US would remain in Iraq long enough for AQ to kill 100 thousand Americans, so who knows where fact begins and false bravado ends? I respond that we have made far more dead terrorists than live ones in Iraq and the declining numbers of those trying to get into the country and the declining numbers of attacks they make are good enough proof of this. Your anamysis is flawed. Terrorists are not a finite number – this is not a case of killing them all when we eliminate the last standing AQ memember. Groups like AQ survivie by rallying others to their cause, which in turn is accelerated by the presence of US troops in the region and the so called “collateral damage” we inflict. Having said that, the number of attacks AQ were inflciting, as opposed to isurgent activity, has never been delineated by the pro war party that blames any attacks on AQ in the past, and Iran now.
Excuse me! Now you are arguing both sides of the case. If al Qaida is never going to win against the US, why the hell should we worry about them in Afghanistan? Why is it that when the NIE agrees with you, you think it's fine, but when it says that Iraq was making nuclear weapons, Bush is a liar?
There does not seem to have been any great upwelling of terror since 2003.
Really? So the London, Bali and Madrid bombings were what exactly? The number of suicide bombings in Iraq went from Zero in early 2003, to around 1000.
Yes. Really. World wide the number of terrorist incidents have fallen dramatically. Since 2006, they have even fallen in Iraq. Most of the terrorist incidents in Asia have actually occurred in Sri Lanka and not in either Iraq or Afghanistan. With the Israelis crushing the so-called "intifada" there does indeed seem to be a diminution of terrorist incidents around the world. Check your facts.
Indeed, all over the world islamic scholars have been recanting their support of terror and governments have been making headway in combatting those who do not recant. The terrorists themselves seem realistic enough to accept these facts; why not you?
What facts are you talking about? First, you need to step out of your plastic bubble long enough to question what terror groups you are talking about. For exampe, apparently terrorist groups like the MEK, and Jundulla are OK (because were are harboring them) while othe terror groups are the bane of all evil, or we simply delineate groups that do not take orders from Washington as teroridst groups (ie. Hezbollah and Hamas). Which governments have made “headway in combatting those who do not recant”? Saudi Arabia and Pakistan continue to be Club Med’s for AQ type groups. the
Governments making headway against the terrorists: Algeria, Egypt, Colombia, Israel, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, India, Philippines, Russia, Indonesia, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Ethopia & Pakistan, among a number of others.
US lost 15,000 dead, mostly due to illness, or more than three times the dead in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
Yes we have more survivors, but what about the tens of thousands injured or with PSSD? As Joseph Stiglitz stated, even if we were to end the war today, the cost would run over 3 trillion (conservative esitmate). Where is that money going to come from? Tax? And isn’t it revealing that the number of dead Iraqis (estimated as high as 1 million) or the 4 million Iraqi refugees, or the devastation wrought on Iraq, does not even factor into your calculations?
So, there were no PSSD victims in previous wars? Or does it only count as a result of wars you personally oppose? In any case, are you willing to have your argument reduced to the dollar cost? Who cares about the cost? The financial cost of the war in Iraq is not significantly greater vis a vis today's economy than the Spanish American War / Filipino insurrection was to the US economy ca. 1898-1910.
Whether we look back on Iraq and Afghanistan as successes is for the future to decide but at the present time I think the evidence is fairly promising.
With all due respects, you are seriously deluded. Both will go down as failures. This argument that one day Bush and his cronies will be vindicated, when we’re long gone, is pure desperation in the light of the fact that both have been monumental failures.
If I am deluded about the war in Iraq then so are most Americans. The Democrats did not abandon their efforts to defund the War in Iraq and did not fail to adopt any of their other anti-war efforts because it seemed like the war was being lost. If they thought that, they would have redoubled their efforts. They abandoned these efforts because they seemed less and less popular and the war seemed to be on its way to ultimate success. So too are most Iraqis. They have met most of the measures of success established by the Democrats in Congress in 2006 when they confidently expected that the Iraqis could never meet any of them. And so too is Sen. Obama deluded if I am. He is not now feverishly trying to back out of his campaign commitments to get out of Iraq within 16 months because the risks and costs of staying longer have increased but rather because they have declined. The fact that the war is no longer the main political issue in the US election is because the war has got worse but because it seems to be successful. This war, like any war, may end badly yet. Who can read the future? However, clearly seems like peace is breaking out in Iraq. I think we can all agree that it would be a good thing if the present trend continues.