According to this article, there is a better chance of either pollution, locusts, visa issues, algae, or food problems occurring than not and, even more scary, a 6% chance that ALL of them will occur!

Now Beijing may have some hiccups but the odds presented in this article seem a little harsh.

The locust prediction in particular strikes me as unfounded. What's the exact basis for concluding that there's a 50% chance that locusts will hit Beijing? Do the locusts follow typical patterns, such that their presence in a particular area now indicates a likelihood that they'll arrive in Beijing? Or is this just the chance that there will be a locust problem somewhere in China during the games?

not too harsh:

-- the visa issues are occuring right now: so 100% on that...

-- ditto w/ pollution: even w/ the last minute "cleanup", it's still an unavoidable negative that will be there in August...

Sure, it's a negative article, but if you go to China, you'll see that the Chinese are all terrified that something bad is going to happen to ruin the games and shame them...the govt is so paranoid about protests and terrorists that they've created the visa problem...

While on the other hand, the U.S. is not at all paranoid about terrorism, but exceedingly even-handed and level-headed about it. They even have upbeat color codes such as orange, red, and what-not. I've heard that they are spending millions of dollars each week on a War in Iraq because some nuts from Saudi Arabia, who had trained in Afghanistan, are now hiding in Pakistan. Wise. They do not allow any votes to come up in the security council of the U.N. (in NYC) regarding anti-nuclear proliferation, nor banning land mines, or even stopping the production and deployment of munitions in space.

I like that "they created the VISA problem" reference. I and my wife cannot get a VISA approved for even a visit for my wife's sister from Beijing. She is 30. Married and employed in Beijing. Not white though. Looks kind of foreign now that I think about it... Denied by the U.S. consolate, not the PRC... "VISA problem." I think that ranks up there with 'how terrible of those red Chinese to ban crossbows and guns at the olympics...'

Stupid China-hating American.

Hardly. I love China. That why it's often counterproductive behavior bothers me so much.

Yes, they did create a visa problem in their country. And the people who are suffering are not just would-be-tourists and China-loving expats. The victims are Chinese people in the hotel and tourism industry who are losing money now. And, Chinese people all over the country are being denied the chance to have all the visitors, exchange of ideas, and general international good spirit that they'd been promised.

It's funny the way you betray your agenda by attacking a different problem. Sure, the US visa system is a mess too. That's no reason to excuse the idiotic way that China is going about it's own pre-Olympic visa policy. Instead of addressing the problem at hand, you just attack someone else and cry hypocrisy.

Why not admit that both visa systems are highly flawed. And also that the China visa problem is current and more relevant to this discussion. Framing the discussion as "The US vs China!" just turns it into a silly freshman dorm argument ("What about landmines?!?!).

NOW you're just being paranoid. The next thing you'll want to talk about is bugging calls without a judge order...or water-boarding at GITMO...or WMD's. You certainly have a lot of advice on how to make China a better country. Good luck with that.