Obama Doesn't Need A War Room: He Has Plouffe's Brain.
by
john adkisson
07/02/2008, 11:05 PM #
Although Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe is known as an amiable collaborator and sharer of credit, Obama's "war room" is indeed a place-- Plouffe's head. Over the years he has had his ups and downs, but it appears that Obama is the first candidate that so believed in his ideas that he was given free reign to execute them. Credit Obama with the good sense to let his Plouffe's brain storm.
There is no question that Plouffe designed Obama's plan that eventually beat Hillary Clinton -- not by waging war -- but by sleight of hand. He knew that he had to win Iowa, a nearly all white state (I think I met all thee African-American residents in Iowa City while I was volunteering there in December and January).
The Iowa plan was never to appeal to the existing voter base which he knew he could never take from Clinton or John Edwards, but to create his own voters. With the aid of the best information, the best organizers, and the smartest strategy, Plouffe led a modern miracle.
The proof was in the Iowa polls. One after another in the days leading up to the caucuses, the polling showed Obama was losing. One poll showed him losing by 16 points! Then came the Des Moines Register poll predicting pretty closely the outcome of the caucuses. But other, later polls, continued to show a Clinton or Edwards victory, or, at best, a three-way tie. The difference? The Register's poll assumed some 40% more caucus goers showing up than the other polls did. Factoring in this outrageous increase in participation, the Register poll revealed these newbies were Obama supporters. The party regulars scoffed and Clinton herself was described as being "shocked" she had lost.
Plouffe did not have the advantage of stealth after Iowa. Obama was the open target after Iowa. But Plouffe knew what to do next. Go for the pledged delegates, especially in caucus states likely to be neglected by Clinton's overconfident, incompetent, and bloated operation. Plouffe's strategy (more than Obama's money) made the difference.
Yes, Plouffe had learned the so-called Kerry lesson of fighting back fast (just as Clinton is lauded for doing in 1992's overrated The War Room)-- but this had far less to do with Obama's surprise success than Plouffe's innovative and meticulous planning and execution.
And speaking of Bill Clinton, The War Room film focuses on two of the campaign's lead strategists, James Carville and George Stephanopulos, two of the most overrated political minds of the past fifty years. Bill's campaign manager, and the brains behind Clinton's campaign was David Wilhelm (now an Obama advisor) forgotten by history because of the strutting before the cameras by George and James. Wilhelm refused to participate in the phony documentary (staged like an episode of Big Brother for maximum gag effect). In any event, people forget that Clinton won for one reason-- Ross Perot garnered 19% of the vote mostly from George H. W. Bush. Obama needs close to a majority --he needs a smarter strategy.
Back to the present. Plouffe is still the "war room" for Obama because he oversees everything of consequence (communications, message discipline, strategy, everything) without being a prima donna or trying to grab the spotlight. But he will be the one history remembers.
Back to the future. Because the Obama campaign has suffered not a single "reorganization" ever (I think McCain's shakeup today is about his 70th in a year) we know the decisions this summer will be equally steady and wise. What we've seen so far is the candidate's disciplined friendliness toward every single politician in the firmament, including past rivals and unattainable conservatives. We've seen him refuse to buckle under pressure to give up his money advantage and the candidate's calibrated moves to more centrist positions.
But I'm waiting to see what's in that war room as the election approaches. You can bet it won't be what some pundit predicts or anything McCain can fathom. Plouffe will factor it all in and win.
