....around the upcoming ballot issue in California.

Obama - supports right to marry, if not gay marriage itself; opposes issue

McCain - opposes anything but hetero marriage, supports ballot issue

How will this play out in California? In the national election? Who will it help, hurt?

Opinions?

Nope.

The idea is clearly a ploy to mobilize Republican voters and get them to come out to vote. The real question will have to do with how both sides of the ballot react and how they position the issue. More likely than not, it will help McCain, but it may not be enough to matter.

The 'idea' isn't some type of ploy. Where do you get that crap? These Christian really are afraid of gays and their so called lifestyle. They fear that their kids will turn gay if they see happy gay people holding hands.

This FEAR is NOT a PLOY!!!!

Of course I have NO respect for these people and they are nothing but bigots but it isn't a ploy by the GOP. In other words most people behind the ammendment really care about THIS specific issue (same-sex marriage).

Also, as clueless as these a-holes are even they understand that the odds that the GOP would win CA is about 1 in 4 regardless of what is on the ballot.

The fear is not a ploy. The initiative is a ploy to use that fear to influence the election.

The initiative is to ensure that same-sex marriage is NOT legal in CA.

Hey I know you dislike the GOP (include me also), but I still don't agree with you take here. You again say 'influence the election'. Influence how??? McCain is NOT going to beat Obama in CA no matter what PLOYS the GOP tries here (if they do then I have to leave!).

No the initiative is on the ballot for ONE primary reason. THEY don't want gays to get married. I know a few people that plan to vote for Obama but also for this initiative (since Obama is just another Christian bigot in this regard that type of voting is logical).

So what is your take on the fact that these ballot initiatives get floated in four year intervals to coincide with the presidential elections?

Also, I don't hate the GOP. I don't like Bush, and I will probably vote Obama over McCain, but on the state level I vote probably 60% Republican. The reason is that, at least in my part of the country, the Republican candidates are just more competent. (And I would have voted McCain over Clinton, however.)

The fact is though that since the last Presidential election, there has been a definite trend of using ballot initiatives relating to gay marriage to mobilize the Republican base. This was tried on Bush's re-election and was successful.

Note that I don't think the rank-and-file Republicans *care* if this is only timed to get them out to the poles. They want gay marriage to be stopped. However, I do think that the senior leadership is about as honest on their motivations here as the Bush Administration was regarding the case for war in Iraq.

What do I have to be a smart ass for you to see the light!

I live in CA and this specific debate over same-sex-marriage has been going on for years. Now I would agree that the PRIOR ballot amendment was somewhat of a ploy to increase the conservative turnout. Then there was a lower court ruling. Then two legislative bills that Arnie vetoed since the lower court ruling was being taken to a higher court. Then the CA SC court overturned the amendment and, gays started getting married in CA a few weeks ago. So how there is another amendment but this one to change the CA consittution.

NOW, if there was such an bill on the ballot of swing states like Ohio THEN I would agree with your take on the 'senior leadership', but not here in CA. This is 99% about just putting gays in their place and NOT about chum to help GOP turnout.