GreenwichJ quotes in black italics; UNRC only in italics
According to the UNCR, more than 1.2 million Iraqis fled to Iran alone after the first Gulf war.
Next, if stability and a welcoming government appear in Baghdad after
the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, UNHCR will be assisting the
repatriation of some of the over 200,000 Iraqis who had found safety in
Iran from conflicts stretching back to the mid-1970s. More than half of
some 400,000 recognised Iraqi refugees worldwide live in Iran... (emphasis added)
Spruce: At the beginning of the U.S. invasion, there were 400,000 Iraqi refugees throughout the world, 200,00o of which were in Iran.
..That war also started an exodus to Iran of Arab refugees, mostly
Shias from the southern and central provinces of Iraq. It culminated in
the mass movement over the border of 1.3 million Iraqis immediately
after the 1991 Gulf War, when Saddam ruthlessly crushed rebellions
against his rule in southern Iraq...
Spruce: comment: that is your 1.2 million, which is followed by:
Each inflow of refugees to Iran was followed by return movements: some almost total, others involving only a few people. ...
...When the latest war in Iraq started, Iran was hosting 204,000 Iraqi refugees who had been registered by the government in 2001. (emphasis added)
Spruce: All of this actually undermines everything you said. You attempted to dismiss the 4.7 million refugees caused by this war by claiming that Iraq, under Saddam prevented people from leaving Iraq.
Your own link shows that after the Gulf War, when the U.S. abandoned the Shiite and Kurds after encouraging them to rebel, that some 1.3 million Shia fled to Iran, only to return to Iraq under Saddam. At the time of the U.S. invasion, there was 400,000 Iraqi refugees. There are now 4.7 million Iraqi refugees, more than 10 times the number than prior to the war.
As for your assessment that most of the refugees now are Sunni, I would like to see the evidence of this. Here is an article of the International Herald:
Between January 2007 and mid-May, 41,000 Sunnis, 18,500 Shiites,
19,700 Christians and 5,000 members of smaller minorities registered
with the UNHCR, says Sybella Wilkes, UNHCR information officer in
Damascus.
The Shiites have surprised refugee officials, who initially thought
they would flee into Shiite areas of Iraq. Shiite refugees say they are
hunted down at home and their mosques are car-bombed. Syria, despite
its 75 percent Sunni population, is the easiest and most accommodating
place to go, they say.
"At this point, every group is coming," said Laurens Jolles, the
UNHCR's Damascus representative. "Iraq is reproducing itself in Syria."
Additionally, we must remember that there are over 2 million internally displaced people. Many of these are Shiite. For instance, Shiite Refugees Feel Forsaken in their Holy City.
Finally, the poll: there are always counter opinions, such as:
Iraqis Pessimistic on War's Outcome
Majority of Iraqis Approve of Attacks on Coalition Forces
Polls Show Iraqis Live Surrounded by Violence, Distrust US
Seven out of Ten Iraqis Want Foreign Forces to Leave
Finally, the most sober analysis from Real Clear Politics, the polls are all bullshit because it depends on how the questions are asked.