Wes Clark's blunder over McCain's war record were utterly thoughtless. But they have also altered the Obama veepstakes. He's out.

In past posts I have introduced what I believe is a fair model for predicting Obama's vice presidential running mate with factors ranging from qualifications, compatability, pizazz, political advantages, etc.

Events over the weeks have helped to change the outlook for the contenders.

First, Obama has made a statement about his criterion. He obviously stressed "qualifications" but then went on to mention that he was looking for someone strong enough to argue with him and point out when he was wrong. I think this was a clue.

Second, Hillary Clinton failed to praise the selection of Patti Doyle as Obama's VP Chief of Staff. This seems to me to have reduced her chances of being named.

Third, Mark Warner and Ted Strickland have given Shermanesque statements, while Ed Rendell has made a near Shermanesque statement. Finally, of course, Wes Clark and Chris Dodd have blown themselves right out of contention through a gaffe and a scandal, respectively.

• Given Obama's comments I would now have to move Joe Biden into a clear lead. No one would be less of a yes man than Biden.
• Jim Webb's chances are also enhanced by Obama's statements. Sam Nunn remains a credible choice.
• With Rendell moving down and Wes Clark and Chris Dodd moving off the list altogether, Evan Bayh's star is on the rise, he being the most credible former Clinton ally left on the list.
• Generally, the narrowing of the list has to help Bill Richardson marginally since there are fewer choices. It also increases the chance that John Edwards might be convinced to join the ticket.

Thus, the new current standings for most likely Obama VP are as follows:

Top Contenders

1. Joe Biden
2. Evan Bayh
3. Jim Webb
4. Sam Nunn

Second Tier

1. John Edwards
2. Bill Richardson
3. Ed Rendell
4. Bob Graham

Third Tier

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Kathleen Sebelius
3. Tom Daschle
4. Janet Napolitano

Longshots

1. Colin Powell
2. John Kerry
3. Ted Strickland
4. Tim Kaine

Out

1. Chris Dodd
2. Mark Warner
3. Wes Clark
4. Dianne Feinstein

As usual, comments are welcome. I'm not looking for "yes" men or "yes" women.

Interesting analysis.

Why do you consider Clark's comments a "blunder"? I thought he was very clear about praising McCain's service (even calling him "my hero") yet refuting the claim that McCain's pilot and POW status makes him a foreign policy expert. I'm very disappointed that Obama denounced him.