I, along with a handful of friendly Slate commenters, have been struggling to create a predictive model for Obama's likely Vice-Presidential pick.

One problem is that events keep getting in the way: (1) the Dodd scandal (who'da thought?); (2) Biden saying he'd accept; (3) Hillary failing to praise Patty Solis Doyle in public (reducing her chances considerably); (4) Mark Warner and Ted Strickland giving Shermanesque statements; and (5) Webb getting entangled in his remarks about Tailhook and slavery (ouch!).

So the list, while still including some of the above, keeps shifting. It appears that the following potentials are mainly in the running: Joe Biden, Sam Nunn, Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Ed Rendell, Bob Graham, Bill Richardson, Kathleen Sebelius, and Wesley Clark. Sure there a more, but these are the top 10 contenders now.

Did you ever have to make up your mind? Pick up on one and leave the others behind?

Well, the task is hard, but let's try a new approach. Let's list the likely advantages that Obama will be looking for, and rate each possibility on a 0-3 scale. When we add the points up, we will have a plausible order.

The factors.

1. Presidential Qualifications.
2. Gravitas & experience balance
3. Message compatibility
4. State advantage
5. Personal compatibility
6. Appeal to Independents, Women, or Working Class Voters
7. Lack of negatives or current scandals
8. Pizzazz

Let's apply the factors on a 0-3 point scale to each possible running mate:

• Hillary Clinton. (1) 3; (2) 3; (3) 3; (4) 0; (5) 0; (6) 3; (7) 1; (8) 3. Clinton Total: 16
• Joe Biden: (1) 3; (2) 3; (3) 2; (4) 0; (5) 3; (6) 2; (7) 3; (8) 3. Biden Total: 20
• Sam Nunn: (1) 3; (2) 3; (3) 2; (4) 3; (5) 3; (6) 3; (7) 3; (8) 0. Nunn Total: 20.
• Bob Graham: (1) 2; (2) 2; (3) 3; (4) 3; (5) 2; (6) 1; (7) 3; (8) 0. Graham Total: 16
• Bill Richardson: (1) 3; (2) 3; (3) 2; (4) 2; (5) 2; (6) 1; (7) 1; (8) 1: Richardson Total: 15
• Evan Bayh: (1) 1; (2) 2; (3) 1; (4) 2; (5) 1; (6) 3; (7) 3; (8) 3. Bayh Total: 16
• Ed Rendell: (1) 2; (2) 1; (3) 2; (4) 3; (5) 3; (6) 3; (7) 3; (8) 2. Rendell Total: 19
• Wes Clark: (1) 3; (2) 3; (3) 1; (4) 1; (5) 1; (6) 3; (7) 3; (8) 2. Clark Total: 19
• Jim Webb: (1) 2; (2) 2; (3) 2; (4) 3; (5) 3; (6) 3; (7) 0; (8) 2. Webb Total: 17
• Kathleen Sebelius: (1) 1; (2) 0; (3) 2; (4) 0; (5) 3; (6) 3; (7) 3; (8) 3. Sebelius Total: 12

The order of the likely Obama running mates based on this analysis is as follows:

1. Sam Nunn (20 points)
2. (tie) Joe Biden (19 points)
3. (tie) Ed Rendell (19 points)
4. Wes Clark (17 points)
5. (tie) Jim Webb (17 points)
6. Bob Graham (16 points)
7. (tie) Evan Bayh (16 points)
8. (tie) Hillary Clinton (16)
9. Bill Richardson (15 points)
10. Kathleen Sebelius (12 points)

Well, unlike McCain, Obama has a wealth of options, all good. It appears that, based on current information, Nunn, Biden, and Rendell are the top contenders.

Please comment on the criterion and scoring. How would your list change?

Joe Biden, Has come out and downright SMACKED McCain on foreign policy in an intelligent and (possibly more importantly) believable way. Has great visibility right now. Is popular with Obama supporters overall. Lends a bit of the traditional to the "change" candidates ticket, which could be hugely important to Obama's success within the "suburbs".

Sam Nunn,I would love to have an opinion on this guy, but all I know about him is that he looks like Woody Allen. I'm 40 and nominally politically aware, this is not a good omen for Mr. Nunn with Obama supporters.

Evan Bayh, Nah..too young, doesn't actually add anything to the ticket that Obama doesn't already have except an exceptional level of "whiteness". And he seems..well..wussy.

Hillary Clinton, Good matchup, although you forgot the Bill factor, that's gotta be good for at least a -1. She is however MISTRESS of the suburban women which helps a lot. But I don't really know that she'll help him carry a state that he wouldn't carry anyway, except perhaps Arkansas. Minor military credentials, but not enough to help. The problem with HRC is that she has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Obama. That's why Wes Clark was on both lists for VP.

Jim Webb, I like him, his personality is so immediate, so practical, and so passionate. He is just un-PC enough to perhaps help with the appalachian states, and Webb could easily be seen as an antidote to Obama's percieved pacifistic nature. He's got the military credentials I think will be an absolute necessity. He'll bring non-college educated males in by the bucketload. He's old enough to have "experience" without seeming ancient and therefore a Washington insider. I think if he played off some of his "less PC" remarks by explaining that he was a military guy used to rough language and rougher crowds,

a la "I'm just a regular guy, sometimes I say stuff..and it doesn't come out quite right, you know how it is. I don't mean anything by it."

He could win a lot of people over.

Ed Rendell, could anything on earth say "old school politician" quite like Ed Rendell?? I keep expecting him to try and sell me a used car. One word..greasy. He'd NEVER go down with Obama supporters unless they were from Pennsylvania.

Bob Graham, I had to look him up, not good..but he's a great choice in many ways. The question is..can he deliver Florida? He'd be almost worth it for that alone. And once the rest of the country heard about his "work days" he'd become immensely popular, I suspect. And he'd make a fabulous foil to McCain's 57% missed votes in the Senate! He's also got the old white guy thing going for him..a little bit of "normal" sauce for the "change" ticket.

Bill Richardson, Good foreign affairs experience, but just might be (man, this is so UN-PC) too much "change" on one ticket. Appalachia would go ruby red all over with a vengeance. On the other hand, he could help secure the new swing states of Nevada, New Mexico etc. I'd be most concerned about his lack of any military chops.

Kathleen Sebelius, She's tough, but not as tough as HRC. She does however have experience "governing" something. I don't think she could tip Kansas though..it's just so..red. Complete lack of military or foreign relations cred almost rules her out. And yet..I do like her. She seems so immenently practical. As if she could somehow iron out peace in the middle east between lunch and a late movie. No plus..no minus.

Wesley Clark, Does he have other clothes?? I ask because he does appear a little "kept in a box until needed". He has a lot of what is required and should indeed be on the short-short list. Military experience IN SPADES. Older white guy..IN SPADES. He may have invented gravitas. Was a major HRC supporter and presumably appeals to her voters as well. He won't bring a single state over unfortunately which sucketh. I'm not sure anyone would vote the ticket for Clark, but he might reassure older more moderate Obama supporters, but I still prefer Biden.

John,

You have done an admirable job of analysis. Still, I remain open to the idea that this is a year in which Conventional Wisdom receives multiple slaps in the face. If I were the nominee, my short list would consist of Joe Biden and Sam Nunn. I won't be surprised if Obama surprises me.

Ad --

I could quibble with your ratings, especially with regard to Richardson and (to a lesser extent) Sibelius, but there is a greater problem with your methodology. You have identified proper categories -- but you have given each of them equal weight. For instance, I don't think that pizzazz is as important as consistency of message.

Also, some of your factors are better assessed in both positive and negative terms (pizzazz and gravitas) or in purely negative terms (scandals). This is more of a quibble than the weighting problem.

However, it is for these reasons that I prefer narrative to mathematical assessments of potential VP candidates. After all, the VP candidate's greatest effect is the story they add to the campaign -- the story about who they are and what it would mean for them to be Vice-President in general, and Obama's veep in particular.

Beathan

Awesomely awesome post..but I think you left out name recognition as a category.

A great candidate like Bob Gramm will have some of his impact lessened because a lot of people who are not politically active simply won't have any idea who he is.

Today it was reported that John Edwards is on the short list. Where does he stack up?

So, the list is revised again:

1. Sam Nunn (20 points)
2. (tie) John Edwards (19 points)
3. (tie) Joe Biden (19 points)
4. (tie) Ed Rendell (19 points)
5. Wes Clark (17 points)
6. (tie) Jim Webb (17 points)
7. Bob Graham (16 points)
8. (tie) Evan Bayh (16 points)
9. (tie) Hillary Clinton (16)
10. Bill Richardson (15 points)
11. Kathleen Sebelius (12 points)

An embarassment of riches.

John,

I realize Colin Powell may not be on the shortlist (yet), but how would you score him anyway?
Also, do you factor "potential for future gaffes" into your #7? Because if you do not, I think this needs to be considered, especially in the cases of Webb and Biden (possibly also Richardson and Rendell). If not, I think this needs to be factored in. I like Biden, but he does not know when to stop talking, and Webb...well, is Webb.

Salientman;

Powell cleans up at 23 points.

Colin Powell. (1) 3 ; (2) 3; (3) 1; (4) 2; (5) 3; (6) 3; (7) 3; (8) 3. Powell. Total: 23

I think Webb may have taken himself out of the running with his new pro-off-shore drillling stance. Richardson has a resume scandal and loose lips. Rendell is pretty good with his mouth and seems to be forgiven for mistakes. He has a forgivable personality.

I don't agree on Biden -- although I agree he goes on and on. He got much better during the campaign. His only scandal was lifting part of a speech. He is just so damned good on the issues and has such stature and credibility. I would consider him a top choice.

Nunn is still my most likely because of Georgia. With Barr and double black vote this year-- Nunn would carry Georgia for Obama.

I spent some time thinking about it.

He's greasy..and loud..and looks like a lot of peoples drunk uncle Bob..but everybody loves Uncle Bob..he might just be almost as teflon coated as Bill Clinton..and for many of the same reasons.