At the end of this post, I have listed my latest top 12 most likely Obama picks for VP -- in order of their likelihood. The list includes conventional choices as well as out-of-the-box possiblities.

In the meantime, the job of VP shopping has become more complicated by mini-scandals from a few candidates, and others giving Shermanesque "I will not serve" pronouncements.

In the wake of the most recent disqualifications for Obama's Vice-President, one wonders who in the world can really pass through the vetting process without stumbling over something troubling. Let's look at the most recent three probable casualties of opposition research who were top choices but whose stars have been tarnished and are probably out of the running.

1. Chris Dodd, intentionally or not, received a favorable rate on a Countrywide loan. Since this was arranged through a middle person, much like vetting czar Johnson's loan, who knows how many more situations like this are out there?
2. Jim Webb, widely considered a top Obama choice, was outed for writing that the war between the states was not fought over slavery and that the Tailhook sexual harassment scandal of the mid-90's was "way overblown." Good way to win over the women's vote. Not. Too bad though since he brought military heft, and credibility to gun totin' rural white voters, and was against the Iraq war before it was waged.
3. Tom Daschle, the dashing former Majorty Leader was looking like a potential until discussions brewed about his connections to lobbyists given Obama's pledge that they would not run his White House. Turns out his spouse lobbied Daschle hiimself right after 9/11 and received a huge deal for American Airlines. This could even ban him from the Chief of Staff job if it gets more dicey.

Obama's choices have also been narrowed by pull-outs.

1. Mark Warner, perhaps his best choice, accepted the U.S. Senate nomination from Virginia and stated he would not under any circumstances accept any other offer. That's pretty Shermanesque. Too bad, he could have run for both and boosted Obama all over the country, especially in Virginia where he was the architect of the changing political landscape there.
2. Ted Strickland, Ohio Governor-- ditto -- won't seek, won't accept. Who knows why -- it would catapult him from obscurity. It makes me suspect he has a skeleton or two.
3. John Edwards, ditto, won't do it. Still may have documentary affair lurking but most likely just doesn't want to run as second banana again.

So there go six top choices. Top choices who remain are:

1. Joe Biden, who would be ideal but rumors are that he doesn't want it. His only scandal (other than his long and scandalously boring questions in Committee) is a twenty year old plagiarism charge (he lifted language from a well known speech without attribution). This actually provides an extra degree of compatibility with Obama who faced a similar charge earlier this year.
2. Sam Nunn, the Georgia powerhouse of gravitas who might actually be able to deliver his state with his stellar reputation and Obama's doubling of the black vote this year. The South could rise again,
3. Wesley Clark, the most likely of the former Generals Obama clalims he is vetting. A Hillary supporter who might heal wounds.
4. Bill Richardson, the most experienced possible candidate and a sure bet to win the Latino vote. But would an African-American/Latino ticket be too much for a country that has never come close to electing either? He is also a bit of a loose cannon but is close to Obama after endorsing him at just the right time. He had scandal involving padding his resume, but it wasn't brought up during the campaign this year.
5. Hillary Clinton, with all her baggage would probably seal the deal in November. Could Obama explain away his past vs. future characterization of her? Could she explain the "commander in chief" crack. Sure, they both could. Most importantly and ironically, Hillary might be the most immune from opposition research as she has said all along. Even if new junk was unncovered, there would be a great sigh of "so what?"-- after sniper-fire-gate, whitewater, and all the negatives she has collected. She's a real Democrat who can earn the change mantel just by hanging around Obama.
6. Evan Bayh or Ed Rendell: Ed was a tough cookie for Hillary who would make a good surrogate and take Pennsylvania out of the toss-up category. Evan is a charismatic and attractive campaigner with Washington and Governor experience, but would have to stretch to deliver Indiana. Both seemed to genuinely like Obama during the primary even while they were trolling for Clinton. Easy way to satisfy Hillary hold-outs with compatible partners.

All but Nunn are former rivals -- either they actually campaigned against Obama as candidates or as surrogates for Hillary. This gives them extra strength given Obama's often stated wish to put together a "team of rivals" as Lincoln did. Nevertheless, if it were not for the Hillary factor, Nunn would be cleary Obama's smartest choice.

There are also long shots which would help Obama, some which take some real thought to appreciate.

1. Colin Powell, --two blacks guys, are you kidding Adkisson. Not at all. Powell adores Obama, would be the most experienced military leader possible, is the darling of liberals, moderates, and conservatives alike, and would blow everyone's mind by the brilliance of the pick. After his terrible embarassment on Iraq, his rhetoric has moved ever leftward, and he is vetting proof.
2. Michael Bloomberg, He may be somewhere between Obama and McCain on issues, but leans more toward Obama. He brings credibility, money, impeccable reputation, money, a moderate appeal, and money, with a little bonus for Florida's Jewish community, and oh, did I mention, money?
3. John Kerry, the crazy little thing called chemistry. Conventional wisdom says of course not -- he'd never do it. But out of the box wisdom says what an exciting team. Longshot. Would he take it to be part of the real team for change?

Then there are the lightweights and the possibilities who clash with Obama too much.

1. Sebelius, McCaskill, and Napolitano, These excellent women just don't hold up in the clear light. The women would tempt a lesser candidate than Obama. But they add nothing but a pandering gesture of compensation for not picking Clinton.
2. Kain and Easley, one is a young Virginia Governor and the other is an uncharismatic Governor of North Carolina. They are also in the lightweight category, and with respect to Kain, is a rising star who is almost a carbon copy of Obama. Neither would add value, except they might drag their states into the Democratic column. Not the best reason (standing alone) to select a VP.
3. Dianne Feinstein, a tough, appealing, experienced Senator with all of the gravitas in the world, but older than McCain by four years. Would probably stay in office only four years (allowing Obama to select a successor in 2012) but has the baggage of having ascended to the post of Mayor of San Francisco when Mayor George Moscone was assassinated in 1978. Maybe not such good kharma. Her biggest problem, however, is her right of center voting record on numerous Obama platform issues.

So their they are: six out; seven in; three out of the box, and six possibly out of the question. In this era of vetting whether or not you shoplifted a candy bar in sixth grade (I did) we just don't know who else is going to be disqualified. But working with what we have, let's make a preliminary list of Obama's most likely list, including the conventional wisdom and the out the box possibiities.

The first choice, Clinton, tops list for two reasons: (1) she will beat McCain's head in and she will draw tens of millions of votes; and (2) she is probably a teflon pan for scandals. Here's the list, in order of likelihood, assuming they would take it.

1. Senator Hillary Clinton
2. Former Senator Sam Nunn
3. Senator Joe Biden
4. General Wesley Clark
5. Governor Bill Richardson
6. General Colin Powell
7. Governor Ed Rendell
8. Senator and Former Governor Evan Bayh
9. Mayor Miichael Bloomberg
10. Senator John Kerry
11. Senator Jim Webb (hard to drop.)
12. Governor Tim Kain (best of the lightweights.)

Please post your comments so that we can accurately pick by the end of this process.

I think that you are understating (significantly) the problems with vetting the Clintons. We know about the old scandals. We are bored with the old scandals. We don't care about the old scandals -- but,

There are the new ones (mostly involving Bill -- unlike the worst of the old scandals (Whitewater, Travelgate) which primarily involved Hillary). We have Bill's work as a lobbyist for Columbia -- and on the Dubai Port Deal. We have Bill's presentation fees -- millions of dollars, large amounts of which ended up funding Hillary's campaign. We have the Paul v. Clinton case (allegations of fraud -- in that the Clintons solicited and accepted a bribe, through HRC's Senate campaign, but then failed to deliver as promised). We have the continuing affairs of Bill Clinton -- including allegations of carrying on with another woman who traveled with him while he was campaigning for Hillary.

In other words, the Clinton laundry is still a mess -- and Obama can't afford to try to wash it while running for President.

Beathan

Beathan;

I'm not underestimating what I know about, such as the library funding issue, but I am assuming that short of a scandal much, much more serious than the scandals bringing down Dodd and Johnson, it wouldn't hurt due to the confusion voters would experience over current and former scandals. I am also suspicous of any suggestion that there is anything out there that is earth shattering, since the Clintons have made their fortunes from publishing and did not need bribes. The other reason I say this is that since 1999 there has been a perpetual campaign to elect Hillary President and my guess is that their scandals are not momentous.

Bill has amazed us before, however.

If you are right or if Obama is blocked from the access he needs to investigate, she will not be picked.

Bob Graham.

And anyone who think Clinton has even the remotest chance has been smoking something better than I have.

Several other of your picks are just nutty.

Powell? He sold the war. He may have had reservations, but he did it. Automatic disqualification.

John Kerry???? Excitement??????? The man is as exciting as a cold dishrag.

Some good analysis, I assume you are also following the VP contract market on Intrade?

Their top 10:

1. Field/Other

2. Jim Webb

3. Hillary Clinton

4. Bill Richardson

5. Wesley Clark

6. Evan Bayh

7. Al Gore

8. Sam Nunn

9. John Edwards

10. Tom Daschle

I was surprised not to see Ed Rendell make the cut given his appeal to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Clinton supporters in general. Maybe it was his impolitic comments a few months back about white Pennsylvanians having an aversion to black politicians.

Dear I Bleed Concrete & Others;

I haven't seen this list but if these are the market picks, put your money down. Gore is absolutely out of the question. I liked Webb and Dachle but worry that their baggage has become too heavy. I thought Edwards was out because he had turned it down in advance, but I heard him on ABC this morning saying he would anything Obama wanted him to do including VP. That should make news.

Bob Graham, suggested by another commenter, is great especially because of Florida and his pre-war opposition to Iraq. He is just s-o-o-o boring. But I think he should be thrown in.

Powell and Kerry are definite longshot out of the box picks -- but would be interesting and would boost the ticket. Kerry's stature as a soldier has been completely restored since the swift boat ads, and any attention to it would deflect the junk the 527's would throw at Obama. Powell favored the war at one point but is now of a completely different frame of mind and was the only member of the Bush team to be seriously appalled by the war. In any event, I agree they should be moved to the bottom.

Regarding Hillary Clinton, my sense is that she is in first place because Obama will have to make an up or down decision on her before getting to the rest of the list. Even if she has only a 20% chance that is more than the others.

Taking the new information and the commenters views into account let me revise the list:

1. Senator Hillary Clinton
2. Former Senator Sam Nunn
3. Senator Joe Biden
4. General Wesley Clark
5. Governor Bill Richardson
6. Former Senator John Edwards
7. Former Senator Bob Graham
8. Governor Ed Rendell
9. Senator and Former Governor Evan Bayh
10. Mayor Miichael Bloomberg
11. Senator Jim Webb (hard to drop.)
12. Former Majority leader Tom Daschle
13. Governor Tim Kain (best of the lightweights.)
14. General Colin Powell
15. Senator John Kerry

Not intended as an insult. The best (only) way to unify the Democratic Party and to pick up the other half of all the Democratic votes from the primary would be to simply put Hillary Clinton on the ticket.

Phoen-X

Hillary would be the perfect running mate for a do-over of the primaries.

In the general election, Democrats won't be the only voters.

Let that sink in for a minute.

I don't think the Republicans will be voting our ticket in the General anyway.

Any cross-over Republicans votes lost in the general would not come anywhere near the amount of Clinton supporter votes gained.

Think about that.

I have. I disagree with your assessment of the situation.

But then, I'm an Independent.

I hadn't thought of Powell, but I can see the wisdom there. However, Powell would have to agree to do two things first:

1) Register as a Democrat (otherwise he can't be offered the nomination, per Democratic party rules),

2) Publicly denounce the war, and

3) Offer a mea culpa (probably a mea maxima culpa) for supporting it in the first place. He'd also have to offer some logic for his doing so.

It would be best if #1 occurred first (to generate buzz and excitement), then the other two simultaneously (convention floor?). I like him because he has the experience Obama needs on the ticket, he invites disaffected Republicans (for whom Powell is practically a poster child) to vote Democratic, and nominating him shows that people who supported the war early on are not to be demonized. Plus, people who have an issue with Powell because he's black aren't going to vote for Obama anyway. If he'd do it, I'd be in.

Also, what about Senator Bill Nelson of Florida? I believe he was listed on a shortlist somewhere or other? I love the guy: serious foreign-policy AND economics cred, plus a long track record, Florida cred, and has been in space.

Salientman;

My problem with Nelson is he sounds like he's on meds all the time. His experience and Florida are good. But I tip toward Graham over Nelson, even though he is as dull a butter knife, due to his early opposition to the war. Maybe it's me, but Nelson's DNC performance gave me the creeps.

Hmm...maybe he's STILL in space...