I'm in a red state. Speaking purely theoretically (finally), if Hillary Clinton was to run for president in the general election, the only possible way she could win South Carolina is if the entire state was rained on by a major meteor storm that just managed to miss the cities of Columbia and Charleston... and even then she'd only have a ~5% chance.

So, I had the opportunity to be an asshole about my seething dislike of Hillary during the primary... and swear absolutely that I would not vote for her during the general.

I wouldn't have either... because my vote doesn't really matter here.

In 2000, a few hundred voteres in Florida determined the entire election... so I'm certain that the ~100,000 Nader supporters in Florida have been kicking themselves for the last 8 miserable years... but I doubt any Nader supporters from New York or Wyoming really worry about what their spiteful vote portended.

The key, in either determining you will cast a spiteful vote or in evaluating the effect of your spiteful vote, is looking at whether you believe your vote makes a difference.

I imagine there will be a lot of spiteful Hillary voters that stay home in West Virginia and Tennessee this year... because there is a perception that those states are simply out-of-play... So who the hell cares how any individual votes. The same will be true of New York and California.

But I imagine that most of the voters in the swing states and the close states will bite their pride and cast the vote they know that they should.

One concern that I have is the fact that the map is changing... and states like North Carolina, Virginia, and even Louisianna, are not nearly as comfortable for Republicans as the Republicans would like... and states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey aren't as comfortable for the democrats as the democrats would like.

So the real threat from the disaffected Hillary support is in a traditional solid state that has weaker support than normal... but I expect the horse-race polling will help the Hillary zealots to know whether they need to worry or not. I imagine that if either Obama or McCain has more than a 4-6% lead going into November, you'll see a lot of spite voting... If it's closer than that, you probably won't.

Who wants to sit in the shoes of the Florida Nader voters for the next 4 years?

I live in PA and in my area the support for Hillary was very strong so my perception is of this area of PA. In this region, many of the people who voted for Hillary are going to vote for McCain. I cannot say most will but most of the people I have talked to, both young and old are planning to vote for McCain. From what I can tell this decision has nothing to do with being angry about what happened to Hillary. The view is predominantly that they believe that Obama will be an awful president.

translate. Every single issue that comes up for the next 5 months they'll find themselves agreeing with Obama and disagreeing with McCain... and they'll gradually shift to vote on whichever issues led them to support Hillary to begin with.

*shrug*

Every supporter of a failed primary campaign takes time to fall in line. The republicans have taken months. But eventually whatever led them to support their candidate will lead them to support the one closest to their candidate...

If I'm wrong, and Hillary's support doesn't translate, it will effectively end her short (8 year) stint a politics. She'll be working her ass off to try to make sure as many of her supporters will vote Obama as she can... Which should help the transition in swing states.

I'm sure what you say is true in PA. I think it is understood that PA voters, like much of the Rust Belt, are Reagan Democrats. They really don't vote on party platform or the issues, they vote on who they think is most "like them". Hillary and Obama are both Liberals, but Hillary could connect in these places because she seemed more like them (if you believed her on the stump she could shoot a gun, down a shot, and thought that the gas tax holiday was a good idea). She worked very hard at meeting the expectations of these type of voters, and she did a great job at it. But the truth is that her position on the issues are virtually identical to Obama's. McCain's are in a different direction. So, yes folks who don't vote on the issues are more likely to vote Democrat one time, Republican the next. That doesn't mean that the "experience" argument isn't valid, but people who are issues-driven vote on issues, whether that personally like the candidate or not. Even if one would concede (and I will not) that Clinton was somehow more experienced than Obama, people understand that a President has a whole cabinet to advise him...and if he is intelligent (unlike Bush), he has the ability to analyze and make good decisions. What IS critically important, is his stance on the issues, hence most voters' vote reflects how they feel on the important issues. Real Democrats, those who support the platform and the Dems stance on the issues, will move over to Obama (even if they don't like him personally), whereas Reagan Dems won't.

Tundra says: "I'm certain that the ~100,000 Nader supporters in Florida have been kicking themselves for the last 8 miserable years..."

LeRoy: Not so sure about that. I talk to some Naderites who still claim that there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between George W. Bush and Al Gore. And some of them become outraged when you suggest that they caused the election of George W. Bush.

I think some of them are not very smart, let's put it that way.

Well, I guess it's synonomous to the Bush supporters that still claim that we found WMD's after the invasion... When faced with the fact that you made and indefensibly stupid decision... some people just refuse to ever acknowledge that they made a mistake... No matter how much evidence they have to ignore to maintain their own delusions of being inerrant.

:)

Or, maybe they're just dumb.

Either way, I hope that most of the Hillary supporters don't fall into this catagory. :)

Regarding your statement that a "real democrat" would not vote for McCain. What defines a quote "real Democrat"? When did anyone have the patent on the word democrat? Truth be told, the Democratic party actions don't even represent the word. I have the right to choose who I want for president and no party will control me or my vote. If the Democratic party said hey to show your loyalty, we need all real Democrats to jump off the swim across the Potomac River in DC. Then I can say I wouldn't be the one converted enough to swim in that filthy water.

I am going to vote for McCain and fortunately I am in the swing state of Ohio!

tundra:

I am sure Phil would tell you the same. As in Moneybox, we have built a tolerance for each oth even though we disagree. Yet we talk.

It needs to be the same. Talk and they will come. We are not that far apart.

Anyone who says they would choose Mccain after originally supporting Hillary is either a liar or someone is is spiteful becasue their vagina did not win or a complete idiot.

Obama and Clintons positions are about 95% the same. McCain and Clintons positions are about 5% the same.

Thats all anyone who is really concerned about this country needs to know.

I wouldn't jump off a cliff for anyone either but if you really supported hillary and now claim to be going for McCain then you were never paying attention to anything important anyway.

You want to represent yourself as knowledgeable, yet you can not speak without referring to a woman's anatomy in the most sexist way. You say Hillary and Obama are 95% the same yet the party was strongly divided as to their individual selection to the point of insulting the other voters position like yourself. Do you really think insulting people is going to get your point across? Do you really want Obama to win or you just getting ready to pass the blame of his defeat in November to those of us Hillary supporters who choose to vote for McCain? I think the country will lose if Obama takes office, so as a duty to my country I will stand in the world's longest line to vote for McCain. I suggest you do the same for your candidate because they will need every vote they can get. Now, you have a nice day.

My, my, my.

No one is allowed to say anything at all that might be construed as offensive to a Hillary supporter.

meanwhile the Hillary supporters actively work against the very party they supported just two weeks ago.

Clinton is a Democrat, a Democrat. You supported or claim to support her and her ideals. But because she did not win you are now promising to vote to continue the disasterous policies of george Bush. And you say Obama will destroy this nation.

No, you are making a spiteful vote because a person who shares your anatomy did not win.

You prove by your actions that you were simply voting the vagina issue and the candidate herself and her positions do not matter to you.

If you need to see something in the hard truth then its just too bad that you are offended by your own sexism.

One more thing I wanted to say was it is amazing to me that anyone would talk about how close Obama and Hillary are on issues, yet I have read comments on other post from other boards from Obama supporters that say they would never vote for Hillary if she would have won the nomination, they would not vote for Obama if she were on his ticket as VP, they did not agree with her plans, and the list goes on. Yet, because Obama won the nomination you now say jump on the bandwagon or you really don't care about whats important????? That statement speaks for itself.

I am not going to waist anymore time making comments on this board. Maybe tomorrow or the next day. I am set as to who to vote for in this election. So, this is my last statement for the day, because I do have a life outside of this computer. Everyone have a good day and a Happy Father's Day to all of the fathers out there.

In fact, I have read a large number of statements from Obama supporters, indicating that they would have gladly voted for Senator Clinton, had she won the nomination. Especially given the primary alternative of John McCain. And, while many if not most Obama supporters do not want Obama to pick Clinton as his VP choice, for political reasons, they would still most certainly vote for Obama/Clinton, again given the alternative.

I don't know what posts you have been reading to make you think otherwise; not the posts I have been reading, that's for sure.

I have sworn an oath that I will not ever, under any circumstance, vote for any politician that was so utterly inept as to support the Iraq invasion.

Period.

So, if Hillary had won the nomination I would have voted 3rd party.

I will vote for an Obama/Clinton ticket, but I would be offended and feel betrayed if Obama chose someone that utterly incompetent as his choice for VP.

*shrug*

I dispise Clinton, but I couldn't vote for McCain... even in my purely red state, I could never allow the politics of personality to drive me that far.

I think time will heal most of this vitriol from the Hillary zealots... but if it doesn't then they merely prove themselves to be too shallow to deserve a second thought anyway. If they vote 3rd party then it won't hurt Obama's chances much.