Re: Will clinton be a bad egg as a running mate
by
Beathan
06/03/2008, 8:10 PM #
OK -- To start with, Obama is campaigning on change. He speaks of a "new kind of politics" -- as distinguished from what? As distinguished from the snide, snarky, juvenile, highly charge, dramatic,highly partisan politics of the Bush-CLINTON era. Obama has specifically promised his supporters and the nation that he will "turn the page" on the Bush-CLINTON era. How can he continue to make that case if he is bringing the Bush-CLINTON era along by having Hillary Clinton as his runningmate?
Second, I don't see that Clinton gives him anything in terms of the electoral map. She might help in Arkansas -- but the chance of any Democrat (including HRC herself) winning Arkansas is very low. NY is already blue. Pennsylvania should be blue, even for Obama -- and if there is a worry, he would do better with another running mate (Rendell -- or better Strickland to get the Ohio/Penn two-fer). I have heard that Clinton might turn Florida. I don't believe this. Florida has gone red -- and will stay red. Again, I don't believe that Clinton would win Florida if she were on the top of the ticket -- how does she do it on the bottom.
Putting Hillary Clinton on the ticket does not even seem to help much with her own supporters. Her supporters fall into three categories: 1. loyal Democrats who think that she is the better candidate; 2. fanatical Hillary supporters (mostly older women) who feel cheated and/or personally rejected and demeaned by her loss; and 3. racist and Republican trolls who hate the idea of a black President. The first group votes for Obama even if Hillary Clinton is not on the ticket. The last group don't vote for Hillary Clinton against McCain -- so they certainly won't vote for Obama just because HRC is on the ticket. The middle group is more iffy -- but I think that these voters will either reconcile themselves to the loss and vote for Obama whether or not HRC is on the ticket or will write in Hillary Clinton or vote for McCain out of misguided and self-destuctive spleen -- and will do so regardless of whether HRC is on the ticket.
Hillary Clinton would help with hispanic voters -- but not nearly as much as a hispanic VP choice (Richardson, Salazar) would.
Finally, I don't think very many people vote for tickets based on who the VP candidate is. Certainly, some favored son candidates can help -- but they have to be an exceptional person with exceptional ties to a key state (maybe Evan Bayh, or Governor Sibelius, or Warner/Webb/Kain). Clinton has no such ties to any state -- not even Arkansas.
This means that the VP should not be chosen based on electoral calculations -- but rather based on considerations of how the government will function after an election. Hillary Clinton is not a team player. She has been out for herself, to the detriment of Obama and the Democratic Party in this election. She would bring that same division and distraction into the government as VP -- and it must be kept out if Obama is to govern effectively. Besides, the Clintons appeal to the tabloid tendencies in journalism -- and would turn an Obama White House into a circus, just as the Clinton White House was. That would be a bad, bad scene.
Beathan