Harold Ickes' bitter anger and communique from Hillary Clinton said it all. The decision of the Rules and Bylaws Committee was exactly what Clinton was hoping for.

As I have predicted in the Fray <link> , the new Clinton version 6.0 is now playing the role of ultimate victim. She is going to fight all the way to the convention yelling and screaming that a conspiracy has unfairly denied her the nomination.

The RBC just guaranteed Clinton her place on Barack Obama's ticket. To see this element of Clinton's endgame fall seamlessly into place is a sight to behold. So how long will Barack Obama take to bow to the inevitable? Stay tuned.

Obama/Clinton 08!

While I agree that Hillary was hoping for a reason to appeal to the Credentials Committee, thus keeping her candidacy alive, I disagree with your theory that this is part of her calculated plot to get a place on Obama's ticket. I think she still wants to be president. However, I believe that Obama will later this week be perceived as the presumptive nominee. I also believe now that the party is prepared to stand behind him as the presumptive nominee despite Hillary's insistance on not resolving the Florida/Michigan votes until August. She may or may not end up on the ticket. But if she isn't careful, she may wind up driving support away. The compromise reached today wasn't even close to what Hillary wanted, and that indicates to me that what Hillary wants may no longer be as important to the party as it once was.

The RBC just guaranteed Clinton her place on Barack Obama's ticket.

I don't think so. Clinton has said that she'd work her heart out for Obama if he were the nominee. Today's decision pretty much guaranteed that he will be (and he likely would have been even if FL and MI had been seated without penalty).

So she's either going to (1) follow through on her commitment, (2) fake it really well, or (3) go back on her word--regardless of whether she's on the ticket or not. Both (1) and (2) are fine with me; they're distinctions without a difference. But if she does go back on her word, there's no way she'll get the party's support for any prospective bid in 2012 or 2016, and her colleagues in the Senate will make life hell for her in the meantime.

If she tries to tank Obama's run in the general election, any possible shot at a future presidential run would be over. If she really cares about herself, she won't do it, which means she has no real leverage--and Obama should know it. Consequently, Obama should not be afraid to pick someone else as his running mate.

@ brownapril:

"I think she still wants to be president."

Well, yes, that is the whole point. But Hillary Clinton is not stupid or delusional. She knows that she'll have to wait until 2016. The question is this: What job does Clinton want to have during the 2016 campaign, US Senator or US Vice President?

As a US Senator, she will be running against Barack Obama's VP. That is not a position of strength. And Clinton does not want to risk repeating the debacle of 2008. No, the threat of Mutual Assured Destruction that she is clearly telegraphing will work. Just be patient. Obama isn't stupid or delusional either.

Obama/Clinton 08!

@ dsimon:

"Clinton has said that she'd work her heart out for Obama if he were the nominee."

Did you hear Harold Ickes' message from Hillary Clinton to the DNC today? She is taking the fight over MI and FL to the convention floor. The DNC today confirmed Barack Obama as the presumptive nominee. So, no, Clinton won't work her heart out for Obama until he gives her the VP slot she desperately wants and needs.

Obama/Clinton 08!

Did you hear Harold Ickes' message from Hillary Clinton to the DNC today? She is taking the fight over MI and FL to the convention floor.

No, he said they reserved the right take it to the convention. That doesn't mean it's going to the convention.

Some of Clinton's most ardent supporters are hot under the collar right now. His statement gives Clinton time to finish out the voting and wait for superdelegates to commit. Then she can say something nice and reconciliatory when the inevitable becomes apparent to all. Obama is likely to have enough delegates to win even if she had her way with Michigan, so she'll be in an even better position later on to smooth things over without any implication she gave up without exhausting all the options.

"No, he said they reserved the right take it to the convention. That doesn't mean it's going to the convention."

It is a given that all rights are reserved. Ickes didn't have to relay the obvious from Hillary Clinton. Clinton's message was very deliberate and very calculated. From what I have seen of Clinton, I'm not inclined to take her message as being benign.

"Then she can say something nice and reconciliatory when the inevitable becomes apparent to all."

I would really like to see Clinton concede with grace and dignity sometime soon after June 3. And I'd like to see Barack Obama get the VP of his choosing. While I'm in this vein of thought, I'd like a magic pony as well.

Obama/Clinton 08!

you better be right!

True enough. Obama should pick the best VP he can...and that won't be Clinton. A divided White House cannot stand, and with both Bill and Hillary acting as a second axis of power, an Obama/Clinton/Clinton administration would be a disaster.

I would much prefer Obama pick Richardson (popular among Hispanics, a group Obama could use the help for) or Biden or Webb for the national security credibility. All three of these men are safe, likable, and smart - exactly what he should be looking for. A loud-mouth, egotistical walking stage-show like Clinton would be a terrible mistake - especially one who is so widely disliked by a large number of people. The number of miffed partisan Democrats she would be able to drag back to the Obama camp would be largely offset by the number of moderates who just don't like her and the partisanship that the Clinton/Bush years that we all want to get away from.

@ dsimon:

As a footnote, I observed Harold Ickes today in full meltdown over four Michigan delegates or two delegate votes. Even allowing for the fact that Ickes is a lawyer and not a mathematician, he must know that two delegate votes won't tip the balance in favor of Hillary Clinton.

Again, this doesn't sound like Ickes and Clinton are setting the stage for a graceful and dignified Clinton exit. Indeed, Ickes appeared to be goading Clinton's supporters into a frenzy of indignation. And I know exactly why he did it.

Obama/Clinton 08!

this doesn't sound like Ickes and Clinton are setting the stage for a graceful and dignified Clinton exit. Indeed, Ickes appeared to be goading Clinton's supporters into a frenzy of indignation.

But again, what's her real leverage? She can say "take me as #2 or I'll go back on my word and tank Obama's candidacy." But if she really wants the presidency as badly as some think she does, how can she follow through on this threat and still possibly get majority Democratic backing for a future run?

I just don't see any way she could win this game of chicken. I think it's posturing, and the Obama campaign can figure it out. Or it's a way of keeping Clinton's base satisfied that she's still fighting until the numbers are irrevocably against her, even if she got her way with Michigan. What would be the point of fighting for Michigan if it didn't matter anymore?

I understand the blackmail scenario. I just think my explanations are more likely, though we're both just speculating.

What i found most amusing about Ickes meltdown is that this is the compromise that Mich. wanted and came up with themselves, wasnt that the whole point of Clinton fighting for the states voices to be heard? He was also the only one that brought up their canidate and what would be best for them, it was not pretty.

@ Sakura:

"A divided White House cannot stand, and with both Bill and Hillary acting as a second axis of power, an Obama/Clinton/Clinton administration would be a disaster."

This is superficially plausible but it doesn't hold up to close scrutiny. How much power does a VP actually have? None, zip, nada. As President of the Senate, a VP gets to cast tie-breaking votes. That's it. As someone famously observed, "the vice presidency isn't worth a pitcher of warm spit".

"So what about Dick Cheney?" you might ask. Cheney is the most powerful VP in US history for no reason other than that George Bush has chosen to delegate his presidency to Cheney. I'm quite confidant that Barack Obama won't feel obligated to follow this precedent.

As for a divided White House, Barack Obama wouldn't even have to give Hillary Clinton an office in the White House. She and Bill could be confined to the VP's official residence at the Naval Observatory. Just put them in there, brick up the windows, and place an armed guard at the front door. Let Hillary out as required to break ties in the Senate. Problem solved.

Obama/Clinton 08!

I don't think it matters anymore what she stands to gain. She reminds me of my 3 year old who thinks if she can't have a toy then no one can. Well, if Clinton can't be president, then no Democrat can. Same as her supporters who I have seen say, in this forum, that they will stay home or vote McCain to "teach Obama a lesson". It is totally beyond being a rational situation.

@ dsimon:

"I just don't see any way she could win this game of chicken."

Well, that's the tricky thing about a game of chicken, isn't it? Is your opponent bluffing or not? Who has the most to lose? Who is more convincing at acting crazy?

In this particular game of chicken, Barack Obama has more to lose and Hillary Clinton is polishing her crazy act into an art form. Advantage Clinton.

Even worse for Obama, he simply can't afford to play a prolonged and distracting game of chicken with Clinton. And Clinton knows this. Again, advantage Clinton.

If Clinton knows that she has the advantage, then Obama knows it as well. They are both very astute. So the sooner Obama concedes the VP slot to Clinton, the better off he'll be. I'm marking June 4 on my calendar.

Obama/Clinton 08!