OK the easiest to answer is the part about the oil coming from Iraq. In the days leading up to the war we still were getting oil from Iraq. Yea that is lunacy but that is what we were doing and I think we were one of their largest customers. I am saying that from memory so I may not be completely correct but we were getting oil from them is something I am sure is correct. Secondly, anything or should I say virtually everything that came from Bush's administration related to the war in Iraq, and especially why we should have gone to war in my mind is BS. I think Oil was part of it but so was having a military presence there was also a factor. Reality is a major upheaval there would total our economy.
As far as the profits go the total means nothing essentially. Their net profit margin is a bit over 9 percent. Net profit is the money they have left after paying for all the costs of selling their product. While this is a reasonable profit margin it is less than the margins of thousands of other companies and about one third the net profit margin of Goggle.
Say you just use dollar amount and the number is large so we take half of it to give back to the people of this country. In that move their profit drops to just over 4.5%. At that number they are closing in on totally safe investments where it makes less sense to be in business because you can make just as much with no risk. Those who invest in the company look at this difference as the premium for the risk they take.
In the extreme if you have 100 dollars to invest, you can put it in a number of places where the money it earns is guaranteed i.e savings account, a bond, money market account etc. with luck you get 3 or 4 percent. By contrast you can put the money on red in a roulette game or buy lottery tickets where the return could be 50% or in the millions. The difference is the risk involved. If playing the lottery and winning returned 100 dollars how many tickets would anyone ever buy when the odds of winning were in the millions to one range.
Be it 1 dollar or a billion dollars it may seem like the amount is the key but it is the rates of returns that actually matters. You can say that there are no risks for the oil companies but the examples you mentioned are all risks. If say they cannot get any crude, they cannot produce anything to create revenue, yet they still have lots of costs that are not related to the cost of goods sold.
Lastly, the cost at the pump is too some extent subject to supply and demand. The storms cut production while demand stays pretty much constant the price has to rise. Go to Google finance or yahoo finance and check out the financials and I think you will be surprised.
Since I tend to be pretty cynical I have to believe that the Oil companies are very careful not to generate even more profits to dampen the outcry from the misinformed public forcing the implementation of taxes that will deeply cut their net profit margin. I have to believe that has something to do with their productivity dropping this year compared to last.
What I mean by this is that for every unit of sale there is a cost associated with that unit. So for every gallon sold they after paying this cost they generate what is called gross profit which is directly related to the units sold. So if they sell more units this percentage stays the same but the total amount increases. I know this contradicts what I said above about ratios meaning more but stay with me.
In addition to the costs to produce the gallon of gas they have fixed costs that are pretty much static if they produce 1 gallon or billions of gallons. So as the gross profit in total dollars rises every dollar above these fixed costs is profit. So if they went to 100 percent capacity their net profit would rise to not only a larger number in total dollars but the margin would rise as well. Now 100 percent capacity probably is a number that cannot be obtained but my guess is that there is very little pressure within the company to increase their productivity numbers.
I work for a large company and once the numbers are met, the pressure is turned off so that in essence that revenue is allowed to occur in the following period.
One other factor I am sure they think about is that should they go to 100 percent they may push prices down because of the same supply and demand effect meaning their gross profit margin drops with serious consequence to their net profit margin. Remember public companies are a slave to this number. So they could make more money in sales and in net profit but hurt their net profit margin which would have a negative impact on their market value.
Market value - stock price - is a reflection of the earnings multiple that investors are willing to pay. If the multiple stays constant and net profit drops the price of the stock drops.
Essentially capitalism is why this country is so wealthy. The more we dampen the incentive to maximize profits the less successful we become. If you follow the above explanation, If the oil companies were to receive a tax break if they hit very high production levels, subject to the effect on market prices they would have incentives to increase productions which in all likelihood would drop prices. Probably not as much as you might think but prices would fall.
They have no incentive to do this and a great deal of incentive to stay in that gap between the lower numbers their investors are willing to accept and the upper numbers where governement interference would negate their efforts.