Yeah, you have a right to be pissed. Four dollars a gallon hurts and hurts some of you even more. Bryce's argument about how cheap that price is is essentially the same as that given by right-wingers like George Will and Robert Samuelson who say that since most of those who are in the bottom 20% of income class live in places that are air conditioned, they shouldn't bemoan their poverty.

Bryce has failed you. Not so much by airily dismissing your pain, but by failing to use the reality of $4/gallon gas to teach us about what it portends for the future.

The fact is, the price of oil will head in one direction only -- up! The future will bring $5, then $6, then $10/gallon gas. And it won't be due to the manipulations by oil companies or OPEC or environmentalists or as this clueless left-wing article claims, the Bush administration's wars <link>! Not at all! It's all due to the fact that we have gotten all the easy oil we're going to get and from now on we're going to be running just as hard as we can to stay in place.

Yes, ExxonMobil is making obscene profits, but since 2001 they have greatly increased the number of oil wells they've dug, and despite that last year their production dropped 10%.

The Counterpunch article denies that the growing Chinese and Indian economies have anything to do with the soaring gas prices, because they haven't grown as much as the price of oil.

Hello!?

Does anybody remember how Enron screwed California? A 5% cut in the generation of electricity led to a quadrupling of prices!

The world demand for oil is bumping up against the limits of how much oil can be supplied. And that's why prices are skyrocketing and will continue to do so.

Oh, and one other thing, since we're the world's biggest debtor nation now and China, Japan and Europe have cash to burn, who do you think will lose out in a bidding war for oil? The ones who can pay cash on the barrelhead or the one who asks the Saudis to lend them the money so it can buy their oil?

But don't believe me.

Believe Ken Deffeyes, retired Princeton professor of Petroleum Geology.

Believe Matthew Simmons, the investment banker who specializes in analyzing the oil and gas industry, and who has come to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia has way less oil then they claim.

Believe the folks at the Oil Drum who pour over the data http://www.theoildrum.com/.

And one last thing.... if you feel like screaming at me, do you also scream at the weather forecaster who warns you there's a tornado or hurrican coming your way?

Don't you believe in Jesus? That "whosoever believeth in Him......"?

The Good Lord has endowed the Earth with alternatives to petroleum, including the ability to grow algae in oceans and convert it into alcohol and biodiesel. Then there are many other energy sources.

But we have to foster contraception and safe recreational sex in order to thrive as a surviving species. Europe seems to be getting there.

By the way, I was surprised to see some official stats showing Allentown-Bethlehem with real estate down less than 5% in the last year.

Not much that I could add to that.

Sovereign8:

The Good Lord has endowed the Earth with alternatives to petroleum, including the ability to grow algae in oceans and convert it into alcohol and biodiesel. Then there are many other energy sources.

But we have to foster contraception and safe recreational sex in order to thrive as a surviving species. Europe seems to be getting there.

The problem is that biodiesel fuels, etc.still cost far more to make than pumping and refining oil. That means prices at the pump will continue to rise. The only way to get a handle on prices is to decrease our demand.

I imagine that when oil is hovering ~180.00/bbl we'll see enough of the fledgeling 3rd world economies collapse (into mass starvation and total chaos), that the price of oil will stablize.

It isn't a pretty future that is coming, but I doubt that oil will rise to 300.00/gallon before something breaks.

Of course, 6.00/gallon isn't exactly something to celebrate.

I have no other disagreements with your position. Thanks for posting a little bit of reason amongst all the conspiracy theories.

:)

Why not? I am old enough to remember paying 18 cents per gallon around 1954. Thus, I have seen gasoline go up to about 22 times what was the starting point for me. Now, going from $4 to $10 is only a factor of 2.5:1, so it could well occur in little more than a tenth of the time it took to go from 18 cents to $4, or about 5 years. What surprises me, in retrospect, is that I took what happened in stride. Of course, the price of gasoline is a secondary issue. Of primary importance is the fact that the available supply (in absolute terms, and not just relative to declining demand) will be falling in just a few years, Now that is something worth being pissed off about!

Gee Sov,

I missed the Beatitude that says blessed art the GNP for it shall grow endlessly. However, Torah and Gospel are on the same page about fairness and justice.

You're right about the whole population issue.

As for ABE's real estate, we never got as bubbly.

You're welcome...

Since the 3rd World is a trivial factor in demand, I think China's rushing train will soon slurp up any fall off in said demand. A huge recession, on the other hand, will definitely apply the brakes to the price rise.

Upon reflection, I'm not surprised by the torrent of rage and conspiracy theories. The mainstream medium has done little to explain what's happening.

Even if the supply holds constant, growth in demand in the oil exporting nations will leave less for everybody else, which has the same effect as an actual decline and will exacerbate any declines that do occur.

In 1954 my Dad was driving a Studebaker.

I see that, in the above piece, I said "...and not just relative to declining demand" when I meant to say "...and not just relative to increasing demand" Sorry about that; but you probably made the appropriate substitution anyway.

Demand in the United States right now is dropping. Miles driven in March dropped for the first time since the 1940s I believe. A trend I am sure will continue if the price keeps rising.

Now if one of these inventors of the electric cars/hydrogen cars/compressed air cars/etc. could get their act together, and mass produce something that works in great quantity, we might see our first trillionaire.

For myself, if I can ever convince my incredibly stubborn wife of my vision, I will be living in a full solar house, with plug-ins for the electric cars off a solar battery. If a house in Maine can be fully solar, I imagine I can do that in Indiana.

Where's MY tax credits for exploring future energy sources??

I had two Studebakers (a '52 and a '60), the second of which was the first car I bought new. In '54, I had a '46 Ford, which was my first car. I drove it from New York to California the next year and, after a few months, I traded it for a '50 MG. I still miss that MG!

Where's MY tax credits for exploring future energy sources??

Move to Cali, they give you tax breaks and 0% financing for installing solar panels.

revrick:

Since the 3rd World is a trivial factor in demand, I think China's rushing train will soon slurp up any fall off in said demand. A huge recession, on the other hand, will definitely apply the brakes to the price rise.

Upon reflection, I'm not surprised by the torrent of rage and conspiracy theories. The mainstream medium has done little to explain what's happening.

The 3rd world isn't trivial in food demand, and now that we are growing biofuels instead of food, we are actually starving a continent with our oil consumption. Isn't a global economy fabulous?

Kevin Phillips does a good job of explaining whats going on.