Observations from a European Visitor
by
Jürgen Hubert
05/19/2008, 9:19 AM #
I'm German, and am currently on a two-month scientific exchange to Columbus. I get my regular wage - which is paid in Euros - and I also get a fairly generous stipend, which is also paid in Euros. Given the currently very favorable exchange rate for the Euro (about $1.56 for €1), I should be able to live the high life while I am here - right?
Well... yes and no.
It's true that things like clothes, books, and consumer electronics are very much a bargain for me. However, I have found that the prices of my daily groceries are actually fairly comparable to Germany - despite the significantly higher sales tax back home. Some groceries cost less, but others cost more (such as the local bread, despite the overall much lower quality... but that's a rant for another time). And, of course, the rising gas prices are the most likely culprit for this - transportation costs don't matter much for clothes or electronics, but they are much more important for food.
I think the main problem is that the whole American public infrastructure in the last six decades has been built with the assumption of cheap gasoline. That's why the population density within most American cities is very low when compared to Europe, and the suburbs sprawl out forever. That's why there are few bicycle lines (and often not even sidewalks) along the streets, and the local public transportation system is often rudimentary and only covers a small part of the cities (and Amtrack is a joke - I was really surprised that Columbus didn't have a passenger rail station despite (a) having a fairly large population and (b) an active rail line going through the city). Everything assumes that everybody is able to get anywhere with a car - and now that alternatives start making a lot more sense, such alternatives are hard to get by.
Europe managed to avoid these problems for the most part, though this was admittedly a historical accident and dumb luck more than active planning. The city cores - which were usually built in medieval times - are often unsuited to extensive car traffic, which means that public transportation never really went away. After all, without it it would often become physically impossible to get that many people to their places of work. And the high population density meant that residential areas were planned with much more stringent space restriction - by the time the sprawl of a major American city gradually peters out, one would already be in the next major metropolitan area in Germany. This meant smaller lots for the individual home owner, but had the happy result that commuting distances are much smaller - and making bicycling a real alternative (which can be seen most prominently in Copenhagen - only one-third of all people commute by car, another third commutes by public transportation, and the last third commutes by bicycle).
Now that high gas prices have arrived - and they are unlikely to go down this time - America faces a huge problem. Frankly, it seems to me that the only viable solution would be a major restructuring of the American public infrastructure so that the vast majority of Americans have real alternatives to commuting by car - but that kind of effort will likely take a decade or more. And first, most Americans would have to accept the need for such an ambitious program. And then they would have to find the funds for it, which is hard considering the amount of debt of the country.
Personally, I predict the following for the American economy: The East Coast will largely adapt well, since their cities are old and dense enough to make an adaption of European-style public infrastructure easy - if they haven't already done so already. Some West Coast communities who embraced environmentalism early also might have a good chance to adopt. But the vast regions of the Midwest will fall on very hard economic times as gas prices rise and runaway inflation causes major problems for the individual consumers...