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Discretionary Voting...Hillary as an independent
by justoffal
+3/-2 Reply

This subject has been shuffled around these boards more than once already and has been hinted at recently in passing by several news outlets ...as of yet we have no confirmation of it but an Independent Candidacy by Clinton would be an intriguing alternative to the current two party deadlock. If anyone could pull popular vote for an independent candidacy it's Hillary. This would certainly clear up some of the controversy as to why she has campaigned so hard against increasingly difficult odds. I do recall hearing her say that whatever happened she would support the party nominee and yet she seems to have one ace up her sleeve and why the hell shouldn't she?

Such a candidacy would give us an opportunity to gauge the the depth of American electorate insofar as their party loyalties which I happen to believe are not nearly as strong as they once were. Whereas at one time in the not too distant past a Republican would vote for the Party regardless and the same could be said for the Democratic Faithful there seems to be a growing consensus of betrayal in the minds and hearts of the public these days.

There is an old story about a young lawyer who moved into a small town and nearly starved until another lawyer moved in to the same town after which they both became wealthy.

The push and pull between the two longstanding parties has demonstrably become a tug-o-war over wealth and the securing of the same and not so much about the people who voted them into that blessed material opportunity. In the minds of many there are no longer two parties...only one party with two branches..the money party.

It is very likely that Hillary's followers would follow her to an independent high ground...I disagree with others who believe this would be throwing the race to McCain...I don't see it that way. I also think that the traditional voting patterns would be abandoned in favor of something new if for no other reason than simply that both parties have betrayed their constituencies in so many ways...not the least of which is at the gas pump. Make no mistake about it...they are all raking in huge $$$ from our energy pains.

The real question therein is whether or not an independent president could get squat done in the legislature. That remains to be seen of course. I don't think it is as gloomy as some would paint it but it does loom large as a big unknown...then again the legislative process hasn't exactly been streamlined in the past decade and even party populars can't seem to rally their troops away from the lobbyists.

There would be an ugly din of " Traitor! Traitor!" From the Obama camp but in her position I have no doubts that BO would consider doing the same thing.

jo

Re: Discretionary Voting...Hillary as an independent
by RainMan

I agree it's time to change the system which has become so polarized and competitive that it doesn't even approach civility.

I certainly do not like Hillary Clinton but, after watching her fight tooth and nail for the nomination, and after watching Obama slither like a snake from one lie to another, I have to think she might not be all that bad a president. I only say this in light of the disappointing performance and agenda of John McCain.

I think she would be ten times better than the Muslim and at least as good as McCain.

Jack

It wouldn't be in her interests to do it
by gmat
so I don't think she'll do it. She won't win.

I disagree with others who believe this would be throwing the race to McCain...I don't see it that way

How do you see it? I mean specifically, in terms of states and EVs?

For example, PA.

McCain polls ~39% against either Obama or Clinton. Clinton takes 55% of the remaining 61%, Obama the rest. Who wins PA?

and so on
I don't put too much stock in polls
by justoffal

If Hillary ran as an independent it is possible that Obama might still win..

jo

OK, let's assume that
by gmat
although I doubt it, what does Clinton gain, and what does she lose by going indepenedent?

I can't see that she gains anything.

She loses a shot at Senate Majority Leader. A subsequent run for President. Maybe even her seat in the Senate.

She and her husband are practical, purposeful people.
All good points..
by justoffal

Hillary is all washed up after this year as far as POTUS IMO.

Obama on the other had could lose this year and then go on to win big next time around. If he does lose this year he will probably win in a landslide in 2012...one way or another I don't think anyone is going to deny him the office.

Hillary really has no options left as a party member and I don't think she is interested in the ML position...but who knows? I can't say that your assessment is not accurate because it is I just disagree that Hillary has any POTUS options beyond this election.

Pure fantasy
by ChicagoEngineer

She's already in debt, her current donor base isn't going to foot the bill, she isn't a billionaire (as other long shot "independents" who run campaigns in earnest have been) and while she might recoup some of the money after the fact through public financing it probably wouldn't cover the whole thing (my understanding is that "new party" candidates receive after-the-fact reimbursement based on the proportion of votes they win), the idea that she and Bill would risk both their personal fortune and their political legacy just to play spoiler (If she can't win her own party, she isn't going to win the general against the guy who beat her and republicans and she knows it). She'd also have to come crawling back to the Democrats in two years (I think) when she's up for reelection in the Senate, and something tells me they'd be less than welcoming, even if Barak won.

Re: All good points..
by Th Paine
Dunno, I still have the feeling her strategy is to damage Obama enough that if he gets the nomination (as is highly probable), he is trounced in the General, positioning herself as the candidate for 2012.
And just to offer perspective
by gmat
to the die-hards that are chanting "West Virginia, West Virginia, on to Kentucky":

prior to WV, Obama led by 158 delegates. Now he leads by 175. After next week, Kentucky and Oregon, he'll still lead by 175 (at least)
That does have a certain cold
by justoffal

practicality to it I must admit.

Sheesh...I am glad that I don't make my living in Politics.

Yeah.... I think this one is done
by justoffal

but there are some options sizzling beneath the surface methinks and I have a feeling we are going to see a few of them right soon.

Well...
by justoffal

we do tend to forget just how expensive it is to run for President...

As far as reelection is concerned...I'm betting that she gets out of politics officially when her term as Senator is over.

If anything she may run again in 2012...but I just don't see it.

Re: Well...
by ChicagoEngineer

Maybe she'll get out, but I would bet she's got another Senate term in her. She's really not that old, certainly not as far as the senate is concerned. Hell, Strom Thurmond was what, 162, when he retired?

And I don't think money is the only reason she won't run as an independant. I think she is a loyal democrat, and she's being honest when she says she'd rather see Obama than McCain. I just think the money makes it impossible.

Besides, she'll wield more power as Senate majority leader than she would as a failed Presidential candidate.

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