Make your best-guess prediction of what voters will do based on the three possibilities for the Vice President spot in an Obama candidacy:

1) A woman who isn't Hillary
2) A white male
3) Hillary Clinton

More specifically, I'm interested in how you think women voters will behave in each scenario.

Include your personal opinion about any of these if you like, but please keep it distinct from your prediction of voter behaviour.

It would be like one of those sand mandalas Buddhist monks make, spending hours at their art, only to sweep it all away like so much detritus when they're finished.

First, let me say as Nixon would have, "I want to make one thing absolutely clear:" I don't claim to know how women will respond to an Obama candidacy or to his choice of running mate.

However, I think women are generally sensible creatures, often more so than men, and they will NOT abandon the Democratic Party for McSame if/when Obama wins the nomination; they will NOT reject his candidacy because he is male, anymore than because he is non-white; and they will NOT be upset if his running mate is not Clinton or another woman.

Women are practical and will recognize that if Obama selects a white male (and I think he should), he will have done so in hopes of winning the election and not just to make another show of diversity à la Mondale/Ferraro.

Personal opinion: To win against the Republican slime machine, Obama must appear as serious and sincere as possible. Adding a popular, moderate governor from the West or Mid-West to the ticket would help a lot to stabilize the Democratic effort to win the White House. Thus far, the Democrats have gone overboard in providing a diverse list of candidates and have addressed the issues of racism and sexism well, but now it is time (past time, really) to settle into a serious contention for the Presidency. This nation is in dire straits and the Republicans have no intention of righting what is wrong, so it is up to the Dems to stop the wars, get spending under control; get the economy and the dollar moving upwards, and the price of oil downwards; get healthcare costs under control and to spread the tax burden fairly across the economic strata. Women understand this as much as men do, perhaps better. This is not the year, it turns out, for a woman candidate, though I feel it should have been. It is also not the year for a black candidate, although it will be. The nation has not risen to the point where a person's race or sex is immaterial to his/her qualifications to serve as President, but this year, the nation is in real trouble and the Democratic leadership should have recognized that early on and the voters now recognize it. I expect Obama to win the nomination and I expect him to win the election. I believe,.and I think women believe that a solid male governor in the traditional presidential mold will help Obama win. Clinton will not help. Another woman would piss off Clinton's supporters. A man would not be viewed (I think) so much negatively as neutrally by women and, depending on his qualities, would attract support from independents and moderate Republicans. The Dems need a landslide, a real mandate, to make the substantive changes that must be made.

All of that said, I think Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas <link>would be a terrific candidate for President. I expect we'll be hearing from her in 2012. She would make an excellent VP candidate too, but I worry she would engender (oops, excuse me) notions that a black man plus a woman would be too much on one ticket.

Good question, DC. I tried to answer it fairly and I hope thaqt comes across.

Bob

1) The Democrats get a decent percentage of the votes from previous Clinton supporters, I'm guessing 80-90% of those who actually go to the polls. About a third of Clinton supporters either sit the election out or vote for McCain. Republican voting patterns aren't affected much, although the opening for the GOP to use the traditional "soft on defense" attack is available in a way it wouldn't be with Hillary as VP. Probably a solid Democratic victory.

2) Mixed impact overall - depending on the gravitas (how I dislike that word, but it's easy shorthand) of the white dude involved. A Sam Nunn or Jim Webb type would probably draw in some more independents and Republicans who were sketchy about Obama's national-security abilities, but I would guess that the negative impact among women voters would probably outweigh this effect - I'm guessing fully half either sit out or vote for McCain. I think this would be a tossup in the general election.

3) Hillary is eventually able to get some enthusiasm built up among her supporters, but still a good number (10%? 20%?) still boycott out of pique that she isn't in the top slot. The plus is that I doubt any Clinton supporters are going to vote for McCain with her on the ticket, even in a subordinate role. The downside to this ticket is that it tosses a big, bloody hunk of red meat to the GOP - they get to run against a worst-of-all-evils pairing. Significantly higher Republican interest and turnout. I think this one is also more of a coin flip in the general, although one with possibly more Democratic leaning than scenario #1.

4) No, you didn't mention this one, but a Latino man or woman. I can't think of any nationally-prominent Latina politicians off the top of my head, but Bill Richardson would help Obama significantly among that voting bloc (which as a black man, he naturally has trouble with). On the other hand, his selection might just piss off Clinton supporters even more than choosing a non-Hillary woman. I can't read the results of this one with any confidence, but I'd guess that the overall impact would be about like scenario #2.

If Obama picks Hillary, he gets a fair proportion of the women from the center, and those who've come out just to vote for a woman. I give him about a 7-9 point boost, nationally (not at all negligible).

If he picks a white male (the right white male), he loses that boost, with a subset of those in the middle (moderate Republican women who were voting for Hillary) defecting to McCain - maybe 3%.

If he picks another women, I think he's still going to lose those three percent to McCain (which translates into a six-point shift, because they go into the other column), but it might be mitigated by a small percentage (1-2%) that are coming out to vote for a woman.

What I think he's going to do? If Hillary can maintain until the convention, and make a reasonable case, I think the eventual, brokered compromise will be a joint ticket. Otherwise, I think Richardson is his most likely choice. (I'd feel much better with Kucinich as a consolation prize, of sorts, but I'm not a woman.)

"Women voters" implies a demographic that doesn't really exist. The 18 year-old female Spelman student and the 60 year-old coal miner's wife aren't even in the same ballpark on this issue. Even within this community, you've got a huge range of opinion:

Rundeep & topazz are already leaning towards/voting for Obama, so his VP choice probably makes no difference to them. Biteo and you (or an American citizen version of you) see that he's a better option than John McCain and will probably vote for him for that reason (Supreme Court), though tapping a woman might help him seal the deal. Lunesta & LaurieAnn will never vote for him, so his VP choice makes no difference to them. I think very few will be swayed as women by his VP choice.

As far as what voters in general (throwing men into the mix) will do, I think a candidate who is strong on national security experience would give Obama the biggest boost. That's where he's the weakest and where McCain will be aiming his attacks. Bush benefited from Cheney's experience in this regard.

Question for you:

Would Obama choosing a woman other than Hillary (Napolitano or Sebelius) be considered a slap? Might that not hurt his cause with some women while helping it with others? Will that be a net gain or loss?

Since you appear to have ruled out a black man as a VP possibility, I'll hold off on my Colin Powell prediction.

3) Hillary Clinton~ By choosing Senator Clinton, Obama will heal the massive rift that's formed in the party. Hillary's supporters will be delighted, ...even her supporters who aren't women. Women (and men) will turn out in big numbers, although not necessarily because there's a woman on the Dem ticket. I expect the women (and men) voters to vote along party lines, with some women (and men) voting for McCain and some women (and men) for Obama.

I expect the same will happen in the other two possible scenarios you've listed, and also in my unthinkable 4th. Perhaps not so much healing of the massive rift if Obama picks Sam Nunn (and his white penis), but people will vote along party lines in the fall.....like usual.

The Democratic primary in West Virginia also got a record turnout.

Dismissing for the moment all the KKK/John Birch Society folks who came out to vote against "that uppity black fella'", Hillary's bringing new voters into the fold as well. Just as I think many of the new Obama voters will stay home in the fall, should he not get the nomination, I think many of the new (or revitalized, or whatever) Clinton voters will likewise stay home.

I think it's fair to say that, most of them are voting on the basis of identity politics, because she's a woman. I doubt most of them will remain excited by another woman in the VP slot, however.

So I think it will cost him votes. Though Sawbones makes a good point about Latino voters, Hillary's already got that bunch pretty well in the bag - choosing a Latino VP mitigates loss in comparison to Hillary, rather than generating new enthusiasm. I also think, however, it might cost him dearly in the "working-class white" vote Hillary seems to have locked up.

Another way of putting it: what happens to the Black vote, if Obama isn't selected as the Democratic candidate? You think they'll still come out and vote for the remaining Democrat?

Me neither.

How many of the far-right votes do you think Bob Barr will syphon off from McCain?

I am hoping for a decent number.

Well, he is an elephant, after all.

I give him about what Nader got - not negligible, in a close race.

I think the vast majority of women will vote their (our) party lines.

Also, there are these women.

found this via

Writes Like She Talks: <link>

Those are interesting.

Violet isn't a big Obama fan, either: <link> but I don't know how she plans to vote.

Have you seen this: <link>

I'm not voting, of course, but in the event of a Clinton defeat-by-a-hair, I find this sort of thing leaves a very bad taste in my mouth.

(also, Hi!)

I think he also called Senator Boxer, "cutie"

I am not up in arms about these things, but it doesn't make me feel great.