In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted mid-January, McCain was two points behind Clinton, five behind Obama. A couple days later McCain won the South Carolina primary.

McCain has led Clinton in four of the last five polling match-ups conducted by Rasmussen Reports. He has had the edge over Obama in three of the last four polls. Following his victory in Florida, Rasmussen data indicates that McCain is the overwhelming favorite for the Republican Presidential nomination.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially during the ups and downs of a Primary Election season. This is especially true when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain now has a narrow advantage over Obama 45% to 43%. Prior to this latest poll, they had been tied at 44%. Both men have now been within four points (the margin of error) of the 45% mark for seven consecutive individual polls. Using a three-poll rolling average, McCain leads Clinton by five percentage points, 47% to 42%.

d;-)

He has been the Republican consistently beating hillary.

We thought there were going to be 3 major issues that we agreed upon.

a) economy....where Hillary has an edge over McCain

b) the war...if it gets strong again Obama clearly wins that one

c) trust...will Obama'a freshness overcome the drastic changes McCain has made since 2000 in his rhetoric ? I don't know. But,obviously McCain takes Hillary on the trust issue...

It depends on what order of importance those issues are listed,I belive in the voter's booth.

The Economy is the big issue at the moment. Working in the Democrats favor is the fact that consumer confidence has tumbled to a five-year low. . 49% of Americans believe the country is in a recession. Another 14% say we’re about to enter a recession. The Employment Index remains at a record low and the confidence of small business owners has fallen to an 18-month low.

There seems to be little confidence that the Bush stimulus package will have any significant impact on the Economy. If anything, it may slow the decline, but is unlikely to reverse current trends. Thus, unless there is a significant negative down turn in the Middle East, it is likely that the Economy will remain the dominent factor going into the General Election.

An interesting demographic this year is single women - especially young women. Historically, only 59% of registered single women chose to vote. But in the recent primaries that has been changing - In Iowa, they were 28 percent of Democratic caucus-goers. In New Hampshire, they were 22 percent of the party's primary voters, and in South Carolina, 30 percent.

The current economic insecurity is more severe for single women. Recent surveys have found them less happy over the country's economic direction than any other major voting bloc. And they are dominently Democrats. If Hillary can keep this group "involved", it could make the difference in the General Election.

d;-)

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the nomination,as you've said...their machine will overwhelm Obama in a 22 state in one day primary...it will be interesting to see where Edwards 14% goes...that could make a big difference for obama if he picks it up...it could make things more of a tie.

poersonally I think he's in it now for his own "political" future. And from that perspective, he will go with whomever he thinks will get the Democratic nomination. At this point it is still a crapshoot and he may very well hold off until AFTER next Tuesday, to improve his own chances.

d;-)

of the voters...if they switch to Obama...which a lot of people ,pro's and even me,have been saying he and Obama have been splitting the anti Hillary vote that could change the affects of Tuesday.

you will notice, for example, that he hasn't "officially" dropped out of the race - Edwards said he was suspending his campaign rather than ending it.

But you are right - it has nothing really to do with his Delegates - he only 56 national convention delegates, most of whom will be free to support either Obama or Clinton regardless of what Edwards does. It all about how the Edwards supporters would vote with Edwards out of the race.

According to an Associated Press poll conducted late this month, 40% of the Edwards supporters said their second choice in the race is Hillary, while only 25% prefer Obama.

We will have to see whether he actually endorses anyone before next Tuesday. My guess is no - unless he is conficent that one or the other is likely to be far ahead after Super Tuesday.

d;-)

I'm glad you brought this up,denny. I think lots of Hillary supporters are not aware that Obama leads in the National Polls in beating the republicans.

But, I also think you are right that it is questionable whether he can beat McCain when it comes to the general election.

I almost want to switch parties, if only because the dems seem so insane to run such highly divisive candidates when they could have easily strolled ionto The White House the Bush ratings so low.

Instead they go for broke , push the people right over the edge by putting us in this position of having to choose between race and gender.

I am so angry about it all, really.

Sure we want a woman or a person of ethnicity one day..but God! Don't we have enough other serious issues to deal with right now?

WHY did the dems have to thrust all of this upon us, now?

I'd much prefer a good solid white male candidate who ran on the democratic platform WITHOUT all of the inherant mixed emotions we have to contend with race and gender factors right now.

I mean, I won't switch parties..I'll vote for whichever dem gets the nomination..but the whole elcetion this year, pisses me off.

Sorry, to be crass but I can't put it anyother way.

It'll be interesting to see if McCain's popularity holds up once independents get to know him better. I know a lot of fairly liberal independents who like him, based entirely on the positive personal image the media has portrayed of him. When I start telling them about his actual positions on policy questions, they're inevitably taken aback. They make the mistake of thinking that if someone seems likeable, he must also be moderate. When they find out how wildly conservative he is on a lot of issues, and what a hawk he is, they're surprised. I think that the national polls are probably built on a lot of that ignorance. It'll be interesting to see how they move as people become more familiar with him.

The other interesting question will be how immigration plays into things. The GOP has been pretty good about keeping quiet on it, since it hurt them so bad when it became a big issue last time, but that issue is definitely a time-bomb for McCain. Clinton's natural supporters aren't as likely to defect to a third party, or to stay at home, based on her liberal stance on immigration. But McCain's going to be asking for a lot of xenophobes to show up and vote for a guy who is pro-immigration and pro-amnesty (despite his flip-flops on the topic). Is there a risk of a "nativist" conservative running as a third party?

For example, what if Lou Dobbs were to come out and run, based on a platform of locking down the border and getting out of Iraq? Dobbs's other positions are fairly Reaganite, so he could pull a lot more votes from McCain than Clinton.

The latest national Gallop Poll (Jan 28-30) shows Obama gaining on Hillary. The latest numbers show Hillary Clinton with a 43% to 39% advantage over Obama but that 4-point lead is the narrowest since early January, a substantial gain for Obama. It does not show any significant effect from the Edwards withdrawal - so we will have to continue to watch up through Tuesday.

Interestingly, the Rasmussen Poll show Hillary with a slightly larger lead - Clinton 42% and Obama 35%. While last nights data (after the Edwards withdrawl) - shows them drawing even, Rasmussen warns that the sample is relatively small and should be viewed with "caution".

Rasmussen still indicates Hillary will win the Democratic nomination over Obama (63.7 to 38.4) with McCain taking the Republican from Romney (83.5 to 12.4).

d;-)

For various reasons that I have been discussing over the last few days, including the post above to LAM, it appears highly likely that the General Election will be between McCain and Hillary.

It is also clear that for McCain to win, he must have the support of both the Independents and a portion of the Moderate Democrats. The two issues which will be most in play, from my perspective, are the Economy and Trustworthiness. While Immigration and Iraq will enter into the mix, it does not appear that either will be a major part of the decision for the majority of voters.

d;-)

LaurieAnnM:

I am so angry about it all, really.

Sure we want a woman or a person of ethnicity one day..but God! Don't we have enough other serious issues to deal with right now?

WHY did the dems have to thrust all of this upon us, now?

I'd much prefer a good solid white male candidate...

Sorry, to be crass but I can't put it anyother way.

Obsessive-compulsiveness, replying to months-old posts in order to try to flame someone. Lock the door too: someone let the CAT out!

Hey friend. Just checked my MBTU and saw your post here on this old thread. thx for always giving the knuckle head cat a bop on her stlking crazy noodle..what an extreme degree of obsessiveness she has eh?
Can you even imagine spending YOUR day searching through her sill posts with a fine toothed comb?
God!

One would have to be a masochist to do that.

OT..that is an intersting olf post of mine.

I never in a million years thought I would switch parties but now having witnessed the vicious degree of attacks on Hillary by the media and by BO supporters and the fact that the DNC is going to disenfranchise two key states in order to insure an Obie lead..I just can't condone the acivities of the party any longer.

Besides McCain is far more centrist than Bush and he has fought against the lobbiests etc.Mainly I beleieve both Hillary and McCain understand how to keep us safe from terrorism attacks. Obama is a real wild card there.

So, no thank you to that roll of the dice on Obama.

I will be happy to vote for John McCain.

;-)