Or more. How does the Nominee Presumptive explain that? I mean, the Press points out that 25% of the GOP primary vote goes to others. And that's fair. Another way to explain it, however, might be that McCain wins by 50 points.

Sure, the Nominee Pre-emptive is attempting to pretend that West Virginia doesn't exist, holding a 100-person Economic Forum in some union shop in Missouri. Low profile.

But it does exist. There it is, on the map. See it? There. A fair and open primary. And one of those very important swing states.

Will they even bother to explain it, or just ignore it and sail serenely forward?

in a McCain v Obama race

McCain wins WV by 15 points

is not Deliverance.

-- Victor Hugo

...they were running for President of West Virginia.

It's West Virginia, for crying out loud. Mountain mama, indeed.

Joking aside, WV is precisely the state where Obama should expect to get obliterated - overwhelmingly populated with blue-collar, white, less-educated voters. It's not a terribly representative slice of the electoral pie and therefore not provident of any new insight on the general election. West Virginia's population is too small to throw much weight nationally either, so I think he's wise simply to ignore a state in which he will have no chance later - saving his powder for states like Texas that all of a sudden don't look quite so red as they used to.

Between McCain and Obama, there will enough unconventionality to both tickets to upend completely the received wisdom about which are "safe" red and blue states and which are "swing" states. If they are smart campaigners, they will admit this reality, recognize that WV is just as much of a lost cause in the general as it was in the primary, and focus on game-changing wins elsewhere.

Isn't that Hillary's point? It's swing, in that it voted for Bubba twice.

Though old Sheets is looking a little shaky these days.

I'm told (Urquhart Never Researches) that no Democrat has ever won the Presidency without it. Doesn't such a big blow-out give pause?

The Texas strategy? As in, fuck West Virginia, we're taking Texas?

Do you have any data on this? Because, if so, I'm buying as many McCain futures as the market can bear.

by saying: I'm sorry we didn't connect with those voters. I sure am going to try to do all I can for them when I'm elected President thanks to California, et al.

If it looks like he will win, WVA will go his way, even if it takes a massive sitout from the general to do so. (Though it does have rather the same demographic as Scranton -- skews older, poorer and more likely to be racist.) McCain could win the state for sure. But I think that's likely no matter who the nominee is.

Have I finally gone batshit insane? Am I hallucinating? About damned time.

Just now I got one guy telling me Obama's taking Texas in one ear. In the other ear, I got some ditzy broad telling me Obama can win by taking California.

This is just lunacy. Perhaps he can add Massachusetts to his column. Victory is his.

of the term "swing state"

To me it means a state where neither candidate has strong advantage going in, so that's where the election gets decided.

(eg, In 04 it was FL, PA, and OH. Whoever got 2 of those was going to be president)

In a McCain v Obama contest, right now the swing states (by general election polling) are FL, OH, IN, MI, NM, representing 80 EV

NM is the new WV

Of course the map is different in a Clinton v McCain race

Twice as many Democrats voted in the Texas primary as did Republicans. You can dismiss that as just apathy due to McCain already being well ahead, but you can't do the same for the southern states whose Democratic vote totals on Super Tuesday (when Huckabee and even Romney were very much alive and kicking) were roughly equal to or exceeded their Republican counterparts - Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Louisiana a few days later, with Huckabee still in the race, where Democratic votes outnumbered Republican 2 to 1. Hell, even the totals from Florida were close, and those voters knew their votes weren't going to count.

The Republican solid South is looking a bit shaky from this vantage point - a lot more states are going to be in play in this election, and the prize will go to those who think big and make a play for what had seemed impossible before.

link

I'm not counting on Obama taking the state, but McCain will have to spend some time and resources on Texas. All major cities, including Dallas, are leaning Democrat. The Texas Republican Party has been imploding as of late. Bush is widely viewed as an embarrassment. And then, all that anti-immigration talk... didn't sit too well with the construction industry, big GOP donors that they were, whose workforce is about 30% illegals.

Don't let that fool you. Republicans will show up in November, it is normal to not vote big in primaries. It will be a whole new ball game this winter and mistakes will be made if you try to put primary voting on the same level and run statistics. Just saying...

kim

You asked the question what he's going to say. I answered it. Be a little objective brother. Oh wait, don't.

Well, if he adds George Wallace in a wig to the ticket will he win? Would Hillary win West Virginia as President? I'm thinking no.