Re: This time it's different
by
tsedek
05/13/2008, 12:57 AM #
"The Saudis seem to be cooling towards the gop,"
Inventories are up in repayment for the nice arms deal.
"and the Fed can't risk raising rates during the current credit crunch."
Sure they can. Low rates won't overcome fears of counterparty rish when big banks are writing off billions of bad paper.
"Not that I believe for a second that it's interest rates causing the credit markets to freeze, it's got much more to do with a complete lack of faith after the subprime junk bonds were rated AAA."
My point. That's why the fed had to collateralization bad paper in the Bear Stearns buyout.
"I still say we take some banks and wall street houses to task for their behaviors, give the investing public the taste of blood and a sense that justice has been done."
Street theatre is good. We can put Bernanke and Greenspan on the block with the private bankers. 1% rates and lack of regulatory oversight had a lot to do with this and we can identify the two architects who are the poster boys for malfeasence.
"It will be far cheaper and more effective than the current strategy employed by the Fed. Bring me the head of Charles Prince!!!"
And it won't affect the Dollar. More useful is to start, slowly, raising rates again, quarter point every two months, aim for 4%. Oil will drop to $80 and the economy will rebound quickly and the credit freeze will melt and consumers have disposable income once more. Just the expectation that Gentle Ben won't cut anymore has topped oil and I expect $110 within a couple of weeks, as speculation starts unwinding and the supply/security premium returns to a more normal 15-20% over 3 grams of gold.