Let's have a contest that we keep going on the Deathwatch list. Who are the 10 most likely VP choices for Obama? Here are mine again.

1. Mark Warner

2. Jim Webb

3. Ed Rendell

4. Wesley Clark

5. Evan Bayh

6. Tom Kaine

7. Chris Dodd

8. Janet Napolitano

9. Bill Richardson

10. Ted Strickland

Runners up: Sebelius, Casey, Biden, Nunn, Feinstein,

Out of the Running: Clinton

I don't like the idea of Warner or Webb. Warner isn't even in Washington (yet), so he has no DC experience at all. If Obama's perceived need is national security cred, Warner doesn't give it to him.

Webb does, but he just narrowly won his Senate seat. I'd rather see him stay there.

I might have said Rendell a few months ago, but he really disappointed me during the PA primary. It's not that he supported Clinton, which he had every right to do; it's that he parroted the campaign's plainly invalid arguments (e.g. winning primaries in big and battleground states make her the better candidate in the general election). I admired him when he was mayor in Philly while I was there, but the specious claims he made during the primary I believe show a lack of integrity; to me, he came off as a lightweight.

Clark might be a good choice; can't get much better national security than that. Can come off as a little flaky in person, though. Doesn't matter to me, but it might to others.

Bayh might be a good way to assuage Clinton supporters (for those who think it necessary) and get a swing stater on the ticket. But could Dems hold onto the Indiana Senate seat?

As for the others, I still think Nunn would be an extremely good call. Big national security cred, a southerner, a moderate, tons of "experience" for those who think it's important. And Dems wouldn't have to give up any seats. Care to explain why he's not further up the list?

I like Biden, but I wonder how good he'd be in the #2 role. "Subservient" is not a word that comes to mind when I think of him. He'd make a good Secretary of State, though.

I like Webb. I'm not sure why the fact that he narrowly won his seat counts against him-- because it would be hard for Democrats to keep the seat if Webb departs? Maybe, but if Webb could put VA in play for Obama in the general election, I think the risk is worth it. He's also a moderate Democrat from a Southern state with strong national security credentials-- all qualities that would help balance the Obama ticket and make it more marketable nationwide, particularly to independents and conservative Democrats-- and even to some of the Republicans who are drawn to Obama but might have reservations about his inexperience.

Hi dsimon;

This is purely a prediction, not an endorsement. Get your list in. By the way, the new pundit favorite is Chuck Hagel, not on my list.

I don't have ten, but here are my top five picks and reasoning:

1. John Edwards: An excellent pick to win over the white working-class vote that Obama has struggled to capture, without all the baggage that Hillary Clinton would bring. As a bonus, Edwards's new, angrier persona will serve him well in the "attack dog" role that veep candidates traditionally fulfill; and having already made a run in 2004, Edwards no longer seems like such a callow youth in the public eye. And with Edwards on the ticket and Obama's overwhelming support from black voters, North Carolina becomes a likely target. The downside is that he opens up Obama to the charge that he's too far left of center.

2. Michael Bloomberg: A great way to boost Obama's centrist appeal, and since Bloomberg is now an independent, picking him wouldn't have quite the sting for partisan Democrats that picking Chuck Hagel would. Bloomberg also has a lot of credibility on the economic front, which is a very handy thing to have under the shadow of recession. And he's old enough to provide a sense of gravitas. Unfortunately, he doesn't have any home-state assistance to offer; New York will go for Obama whether Bloomberg is on the ticket or not.

3. Evan Bayh: A bone thrown to Clinton supporters, without having to actually take on Clinton herself. Being a red-state Democrat, Bayh can help shore up Obama's centrist credibility, and he could conceivably put Indiana into play. No real negatives, but not as many positives as some of the others.

4. Chuck Hagel: If Obama wants to show his ability to reach across the aisle, as well as lending some weight to his talk of a new kind of politics, there's no better way to do it than to pick a Republican. And, like Bloomberg, he's an older man, reassuring to those who worry that Obama is too inexperienced. He's also a Vietnam vet. On the other hand, the Clinton wing might be outraged that their candidate was passed over for a member of the other party. Nebraska is pretty red but has shown signs that it might be open to supporting Obama. The question here is whether a cross-party ticket will pick up more independents and Republicans than it loses in partisan Democrats who decide to stay home.

5. Bill Richardson. Moderate Democrat, resume as long as your arm, lots of executive and foreign policy experience, and New Mexico is a genuine swing state, plus his name on the ticket could fire up the Latino community the same way Obama's fires up the black community. But does Obama really want to take on anti-black and anti-Hispanic prejudice in the same election? I think Richardson gets a juicy Cabinet post instead.

Addendum to previous: Just as a wacky, way-out-there possibility, consider Maine Republican Senator Olympia Snowe. She's a highly influential Republican moderate, with the advantages that would bring; and she's served on the Senate Armed Services Committee. And all the women who wanted to help Hillary Clinton break the glass ceiling would have a chance to help Snowe break it instead.

I don't think it's likely, but hell, you never know. (Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if McCain picked Snowe in a bid to poach some of the feminist vote.)

Addendum to addendum: Never mind, I missed the part where she endorsed McCain.

1. Sam Nunn - A conservative Democrat who is widely respected as a foreign policy expert. Great Senate career too. Helps make the case for Obama in North Carolina.

2. Jim Webb - Helps put Virginia in play. Former Navy Secretary.

3. Ted Strickland - Cause Ohio really matters.

Nunn is my favorite and even if Obama doesn't pick him for VP he should consider him for Secretary of State. I suppose Richardson is a good choice too but the three I named could actually help the electoral count. We might finally be seeing a change in voting habits in the South. Stealing Virginia or North Carolina would signal a change in the electoral map.

This is purely a prediction, not an endorsement. Get your list in.

But it's so much easier to just critique other people's lists!

By the way, the new pundit favorite is Chuck Hagel, not on my list.

He'd be a very, very interesting choice.

Daussel;

Good one. Check out my 12-step prediction system on trailhead.