Can you say "resource nationalism"?
Q: What happens when the price of oil goes through the roof?
A: People who "own" the oil (nation-states) realize it's a sellers' market and decide to take proportionately larger shares.
Q: What entities find and produce oil and gas most efficiently?
A: International Oil Companies (IOCs) IOCs are (for the most part) much more competent at that than State Oil Companies
Q: What do IOCs do with their "windfall profits"?
A: That depends. If they have exciting prospects, they invest in new oil and gas production. If not, they buy back their corporate stock.
Q: What do nation-states and SOCs do with their "windfall profits"?
A: States tend to regard profits / taxes on oil production as cash cows for social programs and other government spending. Thus, while SOCs have more or less open access to oil and gas reserves, they aren't as intent as IOCs on producing the stuff.
Q: What is the bane of IOCs?
A: Resource nationalism / "limited access" / "above-ground risk" (It's there in the ground, but they can't get at it.) e.g. ANWR, Iraq (11% of proved world oil reserves)
Q: What happens when IOCs can't get access to oil reserves"
A: It's produced in lesser volumes worldwide than it would otherwise be.
Q: What happens when global supply can't meet demand?
A: Oil is a highly fungible product so price increases.
Q: What is the elasticity of oil price as a function of demand?
A: Hard to know at this point. Many experts thought demand would collapse as $60 oil ruined national economies. That didn't happen and Goldman Sachs says $200 oil could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption.
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Q: What would happen if IOCs had free access to oil and gas desposits worldwide?
A: They would invest heavily is the most profitable geophysical regimes, less in less profitable regimes. That added investment would evoke more supply than would otherwise be available under resource nationalistic regimes.
Q: With more investment and production by IOCs, what might happen to price?
A: If history is a good indicator, price would decline with increased production. With China and India now in the mix, that might not happen.
Q: How long might increased production carry on?
A: Not long. The faster we produce our remaining reserves, the sooner we hit the forthcoming liquids production peak.
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Q: What happens when we get to global peak oil?
A: You don't want to know.
Q: What's happening now?
A: Production has leveled out ("plateaued")...(to a large extent, because of "resource nationalism" / "limited access". This is convenient to owners (states) and producers (IOCs, SOCs) of oil and natural gas because demand exceeds available supply and prices have risen dramatically.
Q: Is that good or bad?
A: At present rates of production, remaining reserves will last longer and make more time available for transitions to alternative forms of energy. Less fossil fuel will be consumed than would otherwise be consumed. High oil prices will gradually transform our "economy" to be less wasteful / more conservative of energy resources. Whether that's good or bad depends on your sense of social stewardship and how you make your living.