I thought I would top post this thought. Even if we Dems reunite, it doesn't matter. Without the cross over from moderate Republicans and Independents we are almost certain to loose to McCain. On the upside, 4 more years of the same will probably reunify the Democratic Party.

That's not particularly true.

We have had record busting voter turnout.

We have had record breaking voter registration.

And we will get the lion's share of the independent voters. They don't like war or a busted economy either.

And frankly I think there will be a pretty depressed voter turnout for the Republicans, seriously many of them are not that keen on McCain either.

Just because we're democrats is not some automatic reason to hang one's head in shame, and assume that we're doomed. We're not.

In fact we're pretty much crushing their butts this year.

The moderates went to Bush, even though by then it was appearant that things were not going well in Iraq. I'm not going to stay away from the polls, but I have enough "moderate independent" relatives to tell you that they are going to vote McCain now. Talk to some of them.

Everyone is talking about independents because of their previous influnce. Fair enough. What few are talking about is the youth vote. I have no way of proving this but my suspicion is that they will be the deciding factor in the general. And it won't be for the old guy.

differentEllen,

You are right. We have lost Independents and moderate Republicans.

A very good VP choice by Obama coupled with a very poor one by McCain might help bring them back, but Obama does not appeal to them at this time.

Only the naive think November will be a cake walk.

Umm... you HAVE heard of the baby boomers haven't you?

you've always got great posts. there are a lot of reasons for hope. 1) look at the numbers for John McCain in Indiana and in NC - 74% in one, 77% in the other. and he is the nominee. 2) no one has been following John McCain - a man I like, but don't agree with. every time he opens his mouth, he works against himself, and he can't remain silent for 6 months. his response to Hagee? "I'm anti-anything." His poverty-tour of the south? the ninth ward in New Orleans shouldn't be rebuilt - then 5 days later he couldn't remember he said it. the memory deal is troublesome too. 3) no one has actually looked at his positions - his foreign policy positions are all over the map - and are wide open for the scariest five-letter word in the English language - DRAFT. Baby boomers may not protest this war in droves - but start talking about sending YOUR kids to Iraq or Iran and there's going to be a problem. 4) his domestic policies are sheer madness. he has stated that he will nominate far-right judges to the supreme court - that is not going to make women voters real happy - democrat or republican - and it will draw some catholics - but not as many as he thinks - i come from a huge catholic family - moderates who are pro-choice. i would lose health care insurance under his plan and become uninsurable. he has no education plan. he has no economic plan. 5) exit polls have shown that age matters more to voters than either race or gender - it doesn't matter to me, but it does to most voters. 6) obama has some history - and it's going to follow him - but so do the mccains. bring up rezko and you're going to hear more about keating than you knew before. 7) obama would not cross another democrat - i do not believe he is going to be that reserved in the general election. 8) the comparisons that are made - dukakis and mcgovern leave out the fact that at least one of those men was not an appealing candidate - the same just can't be said for obama. 9) obama played the primary as if he were going to be the nominee - and did not weaken the party - and he is going to have strong party support for that. 10) mccain doesn't have a lot of money - and if he starts drawing on cindy's money that is going to hurt him in a big way. obama has an amazing base. he's been battered by the clintons, and he's going to continue to be battered by fox news - but there is still hope. the pundits say he can't take california. i don't buy it.

going to be attacked by McCain. You are forgetting the whole Republican war machine.

I just got back from lunch and there were 2 of those "Independents" I was talking about. Bot said, they had no idea what they were going to do now. They both said they were almost certain they wouldn't vote for Obama and, hell, I'm from Massachusetts.

One more - the situation in Iraq has been fairly stable during the primary. There is absolutely no reason to believe that it will remain that way in the next 6 months. I am not saying, in any way, that I want to see more violence in Iraq, but it is inevitable. If that situation changes, McCain cannot say the surge has worked, and Obama was the only candidate who said he was against the war. McCain shot himself in the foot with his inane comments during his Middle East tour too. I don't believe it' a cakewalk, in fact I think it's going to be tough. But there's hope. In Louisiana, the GOP ran Wright ads against a Democrat who was running in densely Republican territory last week - and the Democrat won.

is not a political animal? Obviously, you've never been in the military. The Pentagon will do everything it can to ensure that the situation remains "stable (meaning low body counts)" until the election is over.

Again,

you

I think we're going to see something very interesting. For the first time in recent memory the youth vote is going to count for something. They're very motivated to vote for Obama. They're registering and voting in record numbers.

This, on top of record minority voter registration and turnouts at every primary contest. Plenty of baby boomers will be voting D in the GE, too.

By no means is this election going to be a walk in the park as some suggest.

But the early signs are saying Change Change Change and throw the bums out.

I am a white, female, moderate Independant who can't wait to vote for Obama. I convinced my white, conservative Republican husband to do the same. My white, moderate Republican parents are also planning to vote for Obama (though I think my dad feels a little sick about it, like he is betraying someone, lol). Never, never would any of us vote for Hillary Clinton. Never. I have yet to meet a Republican who would.

Exactly, Jen. I don't get the OP's point at all. Most independents (and some non-"chaos" Republicans) voting in the primaries have been voting FOR Obama. If anything, a Hillary win encourages more conservatives to get out and vote AGAINST her.

PS. I could have written your post almost verbatim (except I have Democratic parents). We even have the same name. :)

Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans in the United States.

The only question is whether they will vote. They have a tendency to allow the Republican minority to convince them that they shouldn't bother.

"The only question is whether they will vote. They have a tendency to allow the Republican minority to convince them that they shouldn't bother."

I'm not worried wether or not they'll vote. We have a highly motivated electorate right now. I'm worried about their votes being accurately counted.

If Dems can't get a good turnout in this GE, then they need to look at their platform, not the voters.