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Why Hillary will win, if the Superdelegates do their jobs
by FairfaxBrian
+1 Reply

The reason primary season is designed to last so long, if necessary, is because this isn't election day in November.

This is a process that shows the change in perception as we expose our candidates, learn more about them over time, look at sensitivities amongst different demographics (and no, not all white people are racist) and different regions througout the country. There is a reason to the order in which the states are scheduled, the gaps of time in between, and the reason we have tie-breaking superdelegates looking out for the good of the party - and making sure the candidate, in the event of such a close race (extremely, extremely, extremely close - even after NC, and even without MI or FL). The point is to test them, and wait until that moment where everyone topples in one direction. Obama still hasn't done that - and won't.

On a quick sidenote, RNC rules state that 1/2 of all delegates are seated as-is if a state changes their primary. Why do the Republicans win elections? Because they've safeguarded their primaries with a winner take all process, and rules about what happens when things are changed. Obama volunteered to take his name off the ballot in MI. If we followed the RNC rules on date changing, she'd be cutting a huge chunk out of her pledged delegate deficit.

If a candidate is strong, and then weakens, if there is solid resistance to their candidacy even after being the "front runner" for most of the primary, if they're ahead because they're winning Republican states that Democrats won't get a single delegate out of in the General election (because, as some Obama supporters I've spoken to don't know, the general election is winner-take-all, which, if the Democratic Party followed in their primary, Hillary would have already been named the nominee - on Super Tuesday), superdelegates step in and correct the delegate count to reflect the true will of the people at the end of the primary season. The Democratic Party has lost to bush twice because candidates that have left-wing support and weak central support can't win the presidency. Obama has the worst support among all the demographics that vote in elections. His intense support right now is from people that rarely vote, but will always vote Democrat. More have been registered than ever before, so regardless of the Democratic nominee, the turnout for Democrats will be in record numbers (but not enough to overcome the middle class). How stupid is the DNC? The reason the supers haven't flocked to Obama is because they really want Hillary, and are afraid of the backlash the media has shoved down our throats. White support was stronger for Hillary in Indiana and North Carolina than before, and Obama's black support was stronger than before - and the NC demographics (especially among Democrats) make it impossible for Hillary. Almost as impossible as Obama thinking he'll win NC (or Mississippi, or Alabama, or South Carolina) in the general election.

If, over the course of this process, it becomes obvious that the unstable hype that inflated one candidate is doing nothing to change the constant, absolutely unbending, even growing, support for the other candidate, the superdelegates need to decide the race in favor of the perceived underdog. People are, for the most part, pretty vulnerable to media spin. The media has baited the public into seeing every victory by Hillary as minimal, and every victory by Obama "a landslide." Maybe the fact that they're financing his campaign has something to do with it?

How am I now only reading/watching conservative media? Ugh. Congratulations.

This is the situation we're in: The race is so close to tied, it's astounding. Hillary and Obama are within a couple percentage points of eachother. The polls show Hillary ahead of McCain, Obama losing to McCain, but she's behind Obama for the primary - barely. The change in percentages (Obama's win was half of what they thought it would be in NC, and smaller than most of his southern state "victories") shows that the south isn't even all that strong for Obama anymore, save the black and college vote (and the college vote is wearing out). You'll see, over time, college students stop showing up to support a guy who's been disowned by those who once were convinced that he was somehow different (it's easy to claim when you have no resume) - and then took a look at his record, and realized all he has is passion and intellect - but you need to be informed, experienced, vetted and ready to be the President of the United States - this isn't some job you give to someone just because you like them - you have to KNOW them, and KNOW what they're going to DO.

Obviously in the past months, Obama's support has retreated to the most liberal (and most likely to vote Democrat regardless) groups - blacks, college students, and the liberal "elite." Blacks and college students historically sit out election days, and Democrats have still won elections despite this. Again, the fact that so many new voters have been registered in these groups will show the Democratic party a record turnout regardless of whether it's Hillary or Obama. The fact that everyone has been claiming Obama as the nominee for so long, and yet, still, Hillary's support is growing and people are starting to second-guess Obama, shows the tragedy that's taking place. Once you get called the front runner, many people vote with the flow (in Democratic primaries, not general elections). This isn't because he's black, because of his pastor, or some petty or racist issue (so stop saying that, because YOU are the ones tearing the party apart), but because, after all this time, he's still ONLY talking (and talking and talking and talking) about CONCEPTS instead of POLICY, and Hillary's support has been hijacked by vicious Obama supporters that don't care about real politics, or understand who she is.

Hillary has an absolutely valid argument to win this primary, and I absolutely think she will, unless the DNC sacrifices November just to keep the left wing happy. The middle class will vote Republican or Democrat, but they'll show up to vote in November, and they've made it abundantly clear that they don't like Obama, and don't mind McCain -- and really like Hillary. Obama's supporters will most likely vote Democrat, but if they don't, they aren't going to be voting Republican (unless they're super sexist, and will vote for McCain because of the gender role. The ones who say they will because of any other reason are fear-mongering).

The people that are posting blogs and out there claiming that they're through with the Democratic party because we've had to actually hold an entire primary season (which is an amazing success for our party - and shows more people are concerned with who we are electing than the Republicans), are trying to spin the media saying that the party's being torn apart by Hillary. If we all just let it play out, the party wouldn't be torn apart by the outcome!

Obama's a wild-card that hasn't built up his resume, presented clear platforms or policies, or made enough decisive votes while in office. He criticizes Hillary for voting for the war, but he wasn't even in office TO vote for/against the war, since the war started years before he was even elected, and he's said before that he doesn't know what he would have done if he had been. Hillary was lied to like the rest of the country. She cast her vote and spoke out about how this was the LAST RESORT. She voted to show solidarity in our country, so it wouldn't look like we were going in with 51%. Public opinion was overwhelmingly in support of the war in Iraq until we found out that they weren't the terrorist threat that bush painted them as. Another thing Obama doesn't want to mention, again destroying Hillary's absolutely respectable decision on Iraq, is that the President had already started the war, without congressional support. We were already there, and it was a "What Now?" decision on whether congress was going to continue it. There was no choice. If we had stopped right then, we would have totally screwed over the entire country.

The demographic shifts and voter reactions to these issues are important - they ensure that the best Democrat has been identified by the end of the contest. If anything, it lasting this long has been great for us, because the private conservative groups have started to attack ravenously at Obama, which shows us that the Republicans are preparing a powerful war against Obama (and believe me, there's plenty to object to - especially excerpts from his book, which was titled after a sermon by Wright that was pretty critical of "White America").

Obviously, Hillary is a hero of mine. I've followed her since I was too young to drive a car. She was once praised, with her husband, by the Black Community - and was highly favored by the black community, in this race, before Obama's first win. It's a total shame, and I'm sure heartbreaking to her, that they've been so nasty to her, embarassing the Democratic Party and offending her supporters with their name calling (are all Hillary supporters racists? Really? Every one of them? She's actually the strongest candidate, regardless of color or gender!). We should be proud of the Clintons - Bill is the only two-term democrat we've had in a long time, brought us into a surplus, and presided over a prosperous economy. When he left, polls asking whether, if it were legal, the public would elect him to a third term, showed him with a landslide victory.

The Clinton era was prosperous, peaceful, and quite frankly a great time to grow up in America. Bill Clinton won a war without losing a single American life, and finished in record time.

Unfortunately, most that were born just before he came into office remember nothing of him, or 9/11, or anything that we've all been through - and there's your college vote, Obama.

Grow a pair, superdelegates, this is your JOB - to elect the candidate with central support - to pick the right candidate for our country, not to drone along and support a false majority that'll screw us over in November! WAKE UP!

HILLARY CLINTON 2008!!!!

And yes, I'm a male. I'm under 25. I'm educated. I'm liberal. I'm anti-war. I'm not poor. I'm not racist. I'm not blue-collar by any means. And I still support Hillary today, more than ever, and more than any candidate in my lifetime, including her husband.

Obama has exposed an unbending, paranoid and racist majority of the black community, and has empowered them out of arrogance, even though they (in this modern day) are holding him, and themselves, back. So who's destroying the Democratic party? Hillary? Or the people that accuse all the people that vote Democrat in the Democratic primary - but not for the black guy - racists?

His delegate count is beyond misleading.

Don't get me started on the caucus process.

Re: Why Hillary will win, if the Superdelegates do their jobs
by NightSwimmer

If you are 25, then you wouldn't have been old enough to support her husband.

Just Sayin...

As for the remainder of your rant, you'll get over supporting the losing candidate in time.

Re: Why Hillary will win, if the Superdelegates do their job
by VaLiberal

Support doesnt only equal votes. I've been supporting the Clintons by going to rallies and handing out campaign material since before I could drive as well- and i'm in my 20s.

I believe Hillary Clinton is the true democrat and I always have- having supporting this party for the past 10 years- I'm deeply saddened at the outcome of this primary and it's sad to see so many ppl turn their backs on her for an eloquent speaker that preaches change and says he's the "new" washington. Newflash- he's a senator and he's a politician and he's pulling the wool over everyone's eyes.

"you'll get over supporting the losing candidate in time." words of an o-bot - truly intelligent statement.

Re: Why Hillary will win, if the Superdelegates do their job
by NightSwimmer

The truth hurts. You'll learn to deal with it as you mature.

I'm not campaigning for Obama. I'm not even a Democrat. I am, however, a realist.

Re: Why Hillary will win, if the Superdelegates do their job
by VaLiberal
Spoken like a mature adult.
Re: Why Hillary will win, if the Superdelegates do their job
by FairfaxBrian

Well, after the media spin off of last night, her chances lessened, but her supports are getting more and more rigid. I'm just saying, the numbers would be in her favor if the superdelegates weren't so afraid that black people might not vote if he doesn't get it. I just think it's exposing our need to be more realistic about our nominating process - let's get rid of the caucus, and adopt winner-take all, or winner-take-all just for blue states and swing states from the previous election.

I'm driving to WV for the next one, and I won't stop. She could save our country.

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