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election poll results
by ipmit

I had the same question as Blogger DWA about the election poll results. I believe the answer is quite simple: if they tell us straight their predictions and this turn out to be wrong the poll loses all credibility. A few hours later we learn how far are the exit polls, while they want to continue using them for many more weeks (like discussing whether Clinton won more white low income christians in Indiana or Ohio).

In fact, if you know what you are doing you can easily get their polling results from what they actually report. Here is an example. CNN reports that Obama received 58% of male and 55% of female vote in NC. The proportion of male vs female vote is 43% and 57%. Thus their polls predict
.43 x 58% +.57 x 55% = 56% of Obama vote and
similarly 44% of Clinton vote. Close enough.

- IP

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