Kevin Phillips is one heck of a smart guy. This link is to an article that he published outlining the history of how the US govt manipulates economic growth, inflation, and unemployment numbers to make them look far better than they are.

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The following is the concluding text at the end of the article. Go to the link for the full article, which contains some very depressing graphs.

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THE U.S. ECONOMY EX-DISTORTION

The real numbers, to most economically minded Americans, would be a face full of cold water. Based on the criteria in place a quarter century ago, today's U.S. unemployment rate is somewhere between 9 percent and 12 percent; the inflation rate is as high as 7 or even 10 percent; economic growth since the recession of 2001 has been mediocre, despite a huge surge in the wealth and incomes of the superrich, and we are falling back into recession. If what we have been sold in recent years has been delusional "Pollyanna Creep," what we really need today is a picture of our economy ex-distortion. For what it would reveal is a nation in deep difficulty not just domestically but globally.

Undermeasurement of inflation, in particular, hangs over our heads like a guillotine. To acknowledge it would send interest rates climbing, and thereby would endanger the viability of the massive buildup of public and private debt (from less than $11 trillion in 1987 to $49 trillion last year) that props up the American economy. Moreover, the rising cost of pensions, benefits, borrowing, and interest payments—all indexed or related to inflation—could join with the cost of financial bailouts to overwhelm the federal budget. As inflation and interest rates have been kept artificially suppressed, the United States has been indentured to its volatile financial sector, with its predilection for leverage and risky buccaneering.

Arguably, the unraveling has already begun. As Robert Hardaway, a professor at the University of Denver, pointed out last September, the subprime lending crisis "can be directly traced back to the [1983] BLS decision to exclude the price of housing from the CPI. . .With the illusion of low inflation inducing lenders to offer 6 percent loans, not only has speculation run rampant on the expectations of ever-rising home prices, but home buyers by the millions have been tricked into buying homes even though they only qualified for the teaser rates." Were mainstream interest rates to jump into the 7 to 9 percent range—which could happen if inflation were to spur new concern—both Washington and Wall Street would be walking in quicksand. The make-believe economy of the past two decades, with its asset bubbles, massive borrowing, and rampant data distortion, would be in serious jeopardy. The U.S. dollar, off more than 40 percent against the euro since 2002, could slip down an even rockier slope.

The credit markets are fearful, and the financial markets are nervous. If gloom continues, our humbugged nation may truly regret losing sight of history, risk, and common sense.

The last time I asked for water in a restaurant; they charged me for the ice.

Recession as a function of economical growth.

I think I heard somewhere your only in a recession if the GDP decreases.

Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

I'd say you are in a recession if the economy is not growing above a certain percentage.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics." Who said that?

The official govt definition of a recession is that GDP, as calculated by their optimistic formula, decreases for two consecutive quarters. Frequently, mild recessions are over before the govt officially declares that there was one.

If one uses a more accurate GDP model, then it indeed would be possible to be in recession even though the govt's GDP calculation says that there is moderate growth.

Ask anyone in the USA other than the fat cats if the economy is good. I can tell you this for a fact. I worked until 2006 and, other than when I changed jobs in 1999 and got a 20% bump, my salary was stagnant relative to inflation from 1988 until 2006. IMHO, the US economy has been in ever-increasing trouble ever since the Lyndon Johnson inflation of the '70s.

Benjamin Disraeli

I don't think I know one person who isn't struggling right now. The president is near pathological in his denial. My biggest expense is food. I remember it used to be cheaper to buy groceries and cook at home than it was to eat out, but not anymore. Of course, I'm now cooking for one so maybe that is part of the reason why.

My house is up for sale, but so are four other houses on my block! There are too many people needing to sell and not enough buyers.

That was an interesting article prag, thanks for posting it.

Aside from American jobs going over seas and the like this is elementary. Energy.

There is one major problem babe.

As long as we have been alive, things have gone on in this country to get us where we are, the nation that is.

No more nuclear reactors built, ditto on refineries, basically avoiding that thing called energy independence.

This isn't Bush's fault. You know this, unebug still doesn't know it.

This problem took time to develop, although it appears to have gotten very out of hand under Bush II. At least gas prices.

That is the root of many problems. Because gas is figured into just about any consumer good you can think of. Food and goods are always increasing due to inflation. If gas is continually going up, now you have inflation plus a very odd market force at work here.

We can't simply blame the oil oligarchs. I blame the liberals for this alone.

Our energy policy is unchanged. If they gave him postive energy legislation, he would sign it.

The problem is, they do not want to allow anything to be accomplished under Bush, even at the expense of their own poll numbers.

They wouldn't let anything meaningful or helpful to the American people get to his desk regarding energy.

Especially if they can get their President in there.

Anything that is done, they are looking to take credit.

That is the bottom line at why we are being raped at the pumps.

Bush is painful to watch, I know, but it could have been worse.

We could have had Al Gore.

Eco-Egos & Eco-Placebos are why we are paying out the ass for gas.

They are craven.

I see new fossil fuel exploration everywhere down here.

Time magazine talks about a war on global warming.

Are you bloody joking!

Try that concept only with energy. A more voracious energy policy.

>>I blame the liberals for this alone.<<

Now now. There are many factors that are to blame for this mess. All parties had a hand in it and all must share some blame. But if we just concentrate on that then nothing will ever get accomplished.

Exxon has had another record quarter for profit. and we still give them corporate welfare, our taxes. What about the Congressmen who invest in the Military Industrial Complex and then vote to fund the war. Money Laundering. Where are those lobbiest who are doling out the campaign contributions?

I don't have a problem with oil companies making money.

I have a problem with our overall energy policies that are making energy and costs in general unaffordable for the plebes.

Admit it the environmentalists over hyped global warming and they have handicapped America by making it reliant on the global energy market.

Instead of growing our own.

And liberals should dangle from a rope for it.

Instead they'll point the fingers at the oil companies.

It's not them, it's the liberals.

You are full of crap Tsu. Ask people who are suffering extreme drought for years out west if Global Warming is happening or the polar bear who cannot find ice to rest on in the arctic. And when did the liberals have anything to do with Hummers and SUV legislation.? Oil company and auto maker profits?? Those are Bush's babies and you believe all that Fox spouts out. Haven't you heard that Fox News is this administrations station , network??. Some people are so gullible and they do not even know it; that is what is really sad.

The liberals have allowed environmentalists to go legally apeshit on the people who would build reactors and refineries, as well as explore for more oil.

So you put a 30 year moratorium on reactors, refineries, and limit internal exploration, you have contemporary gas prices.

You guys like to blame Hummers.

That is your mistake.

People like you say, oh you just have to drive a shitty little car with minimal protection.

The problem is liberals have tied our hands behind our back with environmental limitism.

As for Polar bears seeking ice.

I hear we had a net global gain of ice, in the north pole, south pole, and other places.

Where was it in the United States ski seasons are going longer. They had blizzards up north. London I think got snow last month.

As for droughts, I've already gone over this before. 2004 and the 2005 Katrina year were drought years for us.

We have since had rain, to where we are out of the drought.

We were practically begging for Katrina to hit us.

Some places are in droughts, some people in deluge. When things get tough, you start crying about global warming.

Throwing eco placebos at the environment is number one extremely long term, number two negligible.

Hence useless in solving droughts. There is cloud seeding I think, but more likely just pray for rain.

Keep your filthy liberal paws off my V8 commie!