I will pose the converse of the thoughtful points made in the Fray: What makes you certain that Obama will have the steam to beat McCain? As a lifelong Democrat, ctivist and donor to the party, I insist that Democracy break out in the Democratic Party and that Hillary can stay in until she has made her argument with voters. After all she is winning the big states, real elections and is on a hot streak of late. I remind my friends that the number of states you won is immaterial to the general election--that little inconvenience calledd the electoral college demands 270 votes and it takes a heap of small states if you can't win in TX, Cali, NY, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which all acknowlege the Democrats have to carry in the fall to win the general.

I see a loss for Barack in Indiana Tuesday and the spread will not matter.

Hillary will lose in NC most likely and the spread does matter there since Barack was supposed to blow her out of the water. That will almost certainly NOT happen. I am trending sensitive mean numbers, not outliers to reach both conclusions.

For people who keep wondering why the Super Delegates don't just announce and end this thing, there is an old rule of politics as practiced by all political machines and it goes something like this:

"If you are with me in the primary, you get a good job. If you are with me in the General, you get Good Government."

Many of the Super Delegates are job-seeking in any Democratic Administration. They just want to be on the winning team.

The pressure from Obama heavies Nancy Pelosi, et al to cave and announce for BO now in the current uncertainty is making them very nervous. "The train is leaving the station" argument is just so much posturing and hard sell (arm-twisting?) The impending disaster predicted by the Obama Amen Corner if Hillary doesn't fold NOW has lost all credibility. Jon Alter wanted her to get out before Texas and Ohio. I am glad he is not my doctor.

For all the sturn und drang, the primary season has been a net positive for the Democrats, not particularly nasty or underhanded. But the Amen Corner magnifies every slight, real or imagined to malign "the Clintons" as ruinous to the ticket in the fall.

I have heard all this before--in fact, every four years since I was old enough to read. And it just ain't so.

The train will not leave the station without every pledge available. There are just not enough SD's to spare.

It is also worth noting that the trickle of SD's the O'08 Campaign has been rolling out this week were "triggered" to give the appearance of momentum. Right now the SD's are actually terrified of making a hasty announcement.

Barack will most likely recover, but this has been the week from hell and barring some extraordinary event Barack will split with Clinton and we will go on with two more victories looming for Hillary next week.

However your Super Delegate math is right for the moment. I we so stipulate and If Obama's victory is certain, there is no harm in letting Democracy prevail and let the primaries finish.

It seems that the the only time the fourth and fifth estate gets upset is when Democracy actually breaks out in the Democratic Party. And who elected the media oligarchy, anyway? The voters will decide and if they cannot, that's what conventions are for. I say relax. At the very worst, Hillary has made Barack Obama a better candidate if he is the nominee. He will need all that training to meet Charlie Black, Roger Ailes and the vast right wing slime machine..

So for now,you should relax. There is no knockout punch likely Tuesday. But in the unlikely event BO wins NC & Indiana. it’s over and the rush to get on the train will be astonishing.

"There is no knockout punch likely Tuesday."

The cold hard reality is different. Hillary Clinton continues to trail Barack Obama by about 150 pledged delegates. To close that gap, Clinton has to get 70% of the remaining pledged delegates.

Of the remaining pledged delegates, almost half are up for grabs on Tuesday. To a first approximation, Clinton has to get 70% of the vote in IN and NC. That's more than her best showing in any primary and it's way more than her showing in PA.

Tiny Guam may not count for much, but Clinton's loss there is not a good omen. It punctures the "momentum" argument that only the results from the last few contests should influence the superdelegates.

The race for pledged delegates will be over on Tuesday. On Wednesday the superdelegates will get on board Obama's train. Then the serious business of taking on John McCain can finally begin.

Obama 08!

So where is thew knockout punch on Tuesday? I am not saying it could not happen, but the trends show it unlikely at best.

Obama was supposed to take Guam in a walk...didn't.

The race for pledged delegates will be over Tuesday just How? The votes to win are not available to either Barack or Hillary on Tuesday.

Proportionality is a bitch of a knife that cuts both ways. Barack can't sew this thing up Tuesday by even winning 50% and he will almost certainly lose the next two contests in KY and WV.

We must remember:

Electability and the Electoral College is the prize that will sway delegates. Putting a Democrat in the White House is our mission.

Winning the most states doesn't count for anything if they are not the RIGHT states.

Popular Vote? Al Gore would have been President if that was the metric.

Barack has not made a credible electability showing in the states Democrats MUST have to win in the Electoral College. It's not that he could not. He just HAS NOT been able to win pluralities in NY, CA, FL, TX, OH, NJ or PA which Democrats must win in the general to win in the electoral college.

As they say in Sen. McCaskill's hometown: Show Me.

If Hillary wins IN or NC or pulls a stunner and wins both contests Tuesday (not likely), Obama is in a precarious position despite his current "pledged" delegate lead. (BTW DNC Rules do not stipulate any delegate as "pledged").

Any delegate can vote their best judgment at the convention and that case is still a work-in-progress since neither Barack nor Hillary have the votes needed to win in Denver. Plus FL and MI delegations and the delegates must be sorted out in the Rules Committee. That's why conventions are held for pete's sake..

Love with your heart, but think with your head. The Superbowl is a 60 minute game and has never been called "over" just because one team is ahead in the third quarter and their opponent let em have it because it would be "historic". Politics, you may have noticed is a contact sport and the Democrat primaries are intramural contests with your friends. Then we coalesce around the nominee and rout the Republicans.

In the event that Barack is the nominee, I will vigorously support him, but I prefer democracy and that stipulates that all states voters should have a chance to be heard from.

So, I know you would LIKE for it to be over because Barack is ahead, But this isn't nearly over and will not be until someone gets 2025 roll-call votes at the convention.

So relax, have fun, support your guy and we'll see you in Denver.

"Electability and the Electoral College is the prize that will sway delegates."

Both electability and the Electoral College are red herrings used by Hillary Clinton supporters to distract from the hard fact that Clinton is losing the race for pledged delegates. Barack Obama's lead is such that if he wins NC, the race for pledged delegates will be over along with Clinton's chances to be nominated.

Obama 08!