Re: They'll deny it til the cows come home
by
Dubina
05/10/2008, 2:12 AM #
I'd separate Big Oil from the neoconservatives, but it's pretty clear they're in cahoots to some extent. Dick Cheney signifies that.
I think the reason we built permanent bases in Iraq was to safeguard / establish authority over Iraq's oil resources. If that happened, IOCs would have easy access. If we leave, it's not clear that the IOCs would still get access. IOCs have foothold involvement in places like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kuwait, but SOCs dominate the Middle East and cream its oil riches.
I think if we pull out, Iraq's oil development will mainly be done by a state oil company or companies.
Big Oil's imperative at this point is to get more access to more profitable prospects. They get access to the Athabasca oil sands and ultra-deep offshore stuff, but they'd much rather have the shallow easy good stuff. Who could blame them? But look at Jubak's piece on XOM. He thinks Exxon will either be bailed out by an oil price collapse or disappear in a blizzard of dividends. Imagine that: oil so costly to produce and consume that's it's not worth producing or consuming anymore. That's radical because you have to imagine what people would do without cheap motor fuel. Big changes in store. Other IOCs will offer many technical solutions, but they won't save our wasteful "economy" from an extreme makeover.