Doing all the complicated math and factors figuring is a nice way to kill some time but the writer overlooks the fact that Obama is on a downslope now that voters are getting to know him better. Hillary will get much closer but he will win out due to political correctness. The reason Obama took Iowa is because Iowa is a sister state to Illinois, Duh. So he then bursts onto the national scene and becomes a darling of the. press for a while. Thereafter he edges out in primaries where the black 85% and the bottled water, we are the future, crowd can influence the outcome and wins some caucuses where others are staring at each other when they vote and nobody wants to look politically incorrect. The truth is that he has been losing since Wisconsin and for good reasons. He is not the shining knight some thought. He gives the Philadelphia speech about Wright and race refering to Wright as like a relative you have to put up with but many are not buying that line. Later, this week, he trys to get further away from his Pastor of twenty years and actually denounces him but voters are smarter than he hopes and many will not go for that. We have yet to read the coming details about his close association with the Chicago trial of the real estate tycoon. He has chickened out debate wise, but I do not blame him as Hillary made him look like a high school kid in the Philadelphia debate. He is constantly talking his way out sticky situations like "Look, I was only eight years old.", in reference to Avery but he was not eight when he buddied up with the lunatic bomber who only escaped prosecution on a technical issue. It is also clear that his wife, who recieved an ivy league degree thanks to assistance from policies of our goverment, and yet has evidentially been ashamed of our country, is not much fair minded. I think Obama also shares her mindset. There will probably be much more from the Republican machine to come about this over reaching, smoothie to come and he will not make President but I think that, just like Dukasis and McGovern, that the liberal wing of the party and the "look at us, we are so much thinking of the future and are so politically correct Superdelegates, are going to get him nominated. Too bad for the future. I am a long time Democrat who has always supported the party as I know what the Republican mostly stand for but this ugly turn to the left is bad news and I truly dislike Obama as he is going to ruin our chance to have a well qualified, decent and energetic woman as President. I hope she refuses to accept the Vice Presidency under this dude.

Yes, indeed. I would like to know in what American universe a black man can possibly be elected President? Talk about fairy stories. People like Mr. Noah need to get into the real world and stop stamping their tiny foot because they can't get their own way RIGHT NOW. Yes I know there was a black President in '24' but that was a fictitious character in a TV show. To suppose that makes it possible in real life is childish and unrealistic. And childish and unrealistic won't cut it in the general election because the Republicans will really be in the shit when all the hearings into what they've done begin. The only way to avoid those hearings happening is to make sure the Democrats choose a nominee who is completely out of touch with 'bitter' working people and who can be dismissed as elitist and left wing and representing the interests of a minority group. In other words Barack Obama. Black voters make up less than 13% of the population and college educated yuppies make up less than 20%. The working class makes up 70% of the population. It's a no-brainer.

Barack Obama has a lock on the Democratic nomination. He will easily crush John McCain in November. Any questions?

Obama 08!

Laforce, your demographics are right and I will correct, for you, your typo. I think that you meant 74 for the TV show. I disagree with you though as I think a black person could be elected President. My point was that Obama is not going to be elected because he is not qualified for a few different reasons. Another point I want to bring up is that there is another possible explination for Obama's sucess in the primaries and caucuses. Beside his recieving 85%+ of the black vote in states with a high concentration of black voters and the votes of the "change " crowd, he must also have gotten many thousands of votes from the white male stop the damned WOMAN bunch. This group will not be so much for him in the general election. Just another reason why we will probably lose. It must be remembered that McCain will chose a well qualified younger person for his VP nominee and will be no pushover. God bless America..

I also hope that she is not going to waste her time as VP. She would be more useful as a NY Senator.

Obama will not upset your applecart Smiley, he will energize America.

How can you criticize Obama for his relations with Ayers (not Avery) and support Hillary, whose husband pardoned two members of the weather underground who actually were convicted?

How can you say he has been losing since Wisconsin? He won 11 contests in a row between super tuesday and ohio/texas, some of which were certainly not gimmes? Then, he actually won more delegates in Texas, lost in ohio, and split on vermont/rhode island? How is that being on a downslope? Granted, he lost Pennsylvania by a hefty margin. However, I don't know if you're aware of this or not, but Hillary ran one of the dirtiest campaigns I have ever seen (I'm from Pittsburgh, I should know--I was inundated with it for 6 weeks).

Look, I'm clearly an Obama supporter, and your clearly a Hillary supporter. But can we be reasonable about this? If Hillary wins, I'm still going to vote for her. While I will argue that Obama is the better candidate, I certainly won't argue that Hillary is unqualified to be president. Stop allowing your personal dislikes to empower the corporatized, war-mongering republican right.

Also, do you write for fox news or do you just get all your talking points from them?

No,I meant '24' the terror propaganda show with Kiefer Sutherland. My point is: Obama has too many negatives as a candidate and is the riskier candidate. Just on the facts of the situation he should not be the candidate. That McCain can have any possibility of winning is a judgement on the electorate but I don't believe he has as much of a chance as the Fox network wants to believe. He's carrying Bush's baggage and it weighs a ton.

pwoxby wrote the following post at 05/03/2008 5:09 AM:

Barack Obama has a lock on the Democratic nomination. He will easily crush John McCain in November. Any questions?

Obama 08!

People like you make me laugh and cry at the same time.

laforce wrote the following post at 05/03/2008 3:22 PM

The most surreal part of this campaign so far has been the fact that I have seen less biased news coverage against Hillary Clinton on Fox News than I have on CNN and the other so-called 'liberal' media.

Just a couple quick points on McCain; he still polls better than both Clinton and Obama on trust issues, as well as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, even after supporting Bush's surge, even after they tried taking his '100 years' comment totally out of context. Howard Dean was on The Daily Show hawking the new ad the DNC is putting out on the 100 years comment! Factcheck.org calls it a blatant falsehood, and that's all the DNC can come up with against McCain?

McCain can plausibly draw moderates on immigration, tax reform, campaign financing, health care, among other lesser important social issues. And he has the war vote locked up.

I agree that Fox News is playing up McCain's chances more than they are, after all that's their job. But I think you are seriously short changing his chances according to your own biases against him.

"McCain can plausibly draw moderates on immigration, tax reform, campaign financing, health care, among other lesser important social issues. And he has the war vote locked up."

So what you are saying, in effect, is that John McCain has the support of the 28% of the electorate that still approves of George W. Bush. That's exactly what leads me to conclude that McCain will be crushed in November.

With the value of people's homes in freefall and the cost of gas skyrocketing, do you really think that campaign financing is a hot button issue? When the working-class can't afford health insurance and fewer employers are offering it, how many voters be distracted by the immigration issue?

I don't see any domestic or foreign trends that would lead the voters to support another GOP administration. Bush is a stinking dead albatross tied around McCain's neck. When McCain and Barack Obama go toe-to-toe debating real issues in the fall this will become apparent.

You may now start to cry.

Obama 08!

Wow, you really are biased, aren't you?

You see NOTHING that McCain can do, heh. You don't see the polls that put him above or tied with Obama AND Clinton. You don't see the polls showing him ahead of BOTH Democratic candidates on Iraq, regardless of what responders think of Bush.

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Nearly four in 10 Americans (38 percent) have an unfavorable opinion of Obama in the latest CNN polling, up 10 percentage points from the beginning of the year.

Half of Americans think a John McCain presidency would bring different policies than the Bush administration.

Clinton's lead among whites who didn't attend college has increased to 40 percentage

In his analysis of the Pew data, research director Andrew Kohut writes, "Fewer Democrats ascribe positive qualities to Obama than did so a month ago, with white working-class Democrats, in particular, expressing more skeptical views of the Illinois senator.

In the words of Republican pollster Whit Ayres: "Blue-collar white voters are this year's soccer moms."

Ayres said that in recent days, "we've been doing a lot of focus groups with blue-collar whites in swing states. They're open to voting for Hillary Clinton because they think they did better economically in the Clinton administration than they have in the current administration.

"But there's no way on God's green Earth they're going to vote for Barack Obama. They will vote for John McCain instead. So reaching out to those people we used to call Reagan Democrats is a very smart strategy for John McCain."

"Jeremiah Wright is not going away," Ayres said. "There are an awful lot of people, when you just ask, 'What do you think of when you think of Barack Obama?' who bring up Jeremiah Wright's name. They bring up the anti-Americanism. They wonder why it took him so long to separate himself from him. Jeremiah Wright is an albatross around Barack Obama's neck that he's going to have to carry all the way to the election."

If he is right about this next part, it would explain why many Republicans who began the year believing Clinton had high negatives, and that Obama's inspirational message of hope and change would be harder to beat, are suggesting that they would rather run against Obama because of the Electoral College map that dictates presidential campaign strategy.

"Wow, you really are biased, aren't you?"

Not at all. For example, I understand why the polls show John McCain in a statistical tie with either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

Since McCain became the presumptive GOP nominee he has been in a honeymoon period with little media scrutiny. Meanwhile, Clinton and Obama continue to be engaged in a bitter and divisive knife fight that is driving up their negatives.

When Barack Obama becomes the presumptive Democratic nominee later this week, the dynamics of the campaign will completely change. The end of McCain's honeymoon will not favor him. And Obama will have lots of time to unite the Democrats behind him.

Obama 08!