It's a pointless diversion, I think, to spend any more time worrying about Clinton. An 8.8% victory in a closed primary in a state that is demographically designed to boost her and sink Obama, after six weeks of constant and low-brow attacks against him by both Clinton and McCain (not to mention ABC), is exactly what I said it was-- Clinton's "high water mark"-- her Gettysburg. She made her Pickett's charge, she reached Obama's lines momentarily, and now she has to slink out of PA with no money and nothing left to say other than she's more electable than a candidate who's beating her in every possible electorate category.
Yes, there were two years between Gettysburg and Appomattox, but those were two years in which the outcome was never again in doubt.
In fact, as a life long Cubs fan, I recognize exactly what type of candidate Hillary is-- she's the Sammy Sosa, Dave Kingman of the Democratic Party. That is, she can knock out a homer or drive in runs, but only when they don't count for shit. When playoff positions are on the line and it's make or break, Sosa, Kingman and Hillary can't buy a hit. Only when the pressure is off and doom is assured do they manage to put up the numbers. In short, Hillary is the Cubs in early September-- beating the Reds in a series that can't possibly affect the standings.
Nonetheless, the PA and Ohio contests (forget Texas-- there's nothing worth talking about with that state in terms of November) do point out exactly where Obama is flawed and weak as a candidate and where he must adjust his message and tactics. No doubt about it.
Obama simply has been unable to gain the support of working class whites (i.e. earning less than median family income), white women, small towners, and old farts. The questions are why, and what can be done about it.
First, we have to recognize two factors off the bat. One is racism. Not to make a big deal about it, but not every racist fool is a GOPig and there is just a certain segment of the white vote, both independent and democratic, that can't bring itself to vote for a black candidate. No sense in whining about it or pretending otherwise. Just as Obama is not going to win hard core conservative GOPigs, he isn't going to win racists.
Which means he's got to make sure he pumps up his turnout among blacks to compensate (call it reverse racism or identity politics-- either way, he's got to make the most out of that constituency).
The second is that he's facing an establishment democrat who is the first viable woman candidate for president. That is a problem that ought to evaporate once the nomination is settled. Her core constituency, namely white women over forty, is not going to vote for McCain. The issue will be turnout, and the party will have months to ensure that turnout is sufficient. Although, there is an inescapable reality that the conservative wing of the democratic party really belongs in the GOP and we are just going to have to see them emigrate and hope (and work for) compensation in terms of jacking up the number of moderate/left independents joining the party to replace them.
But in the end, a key change has to be how Obama relates to working class voters-- the ones who are most likely to switch from the GOP due to economic conditions and the war.
In reality, it's easy to see why Obama has trouble connecting with them. First off, he doesn't really know them. He did not go to public schools in America, he did not go to a state college, and when he worked, it was among the poor and the marginalized workers on Chicago's southside. In addition, he isn't, like Clinton, adept at shapeshifting and inventing convenient dopplegangers to assume depending on the audience he's attempting to reach.
So, when approaching the general election, it would be a mistake to try and recast Obama into something that he is not. It's also a mistake to rely on jacking up McCain's negatives. McCain is his own walking negative ad in the first place, and in the second, a negative campaign would undermine Obama's appeal among change demanding independents (though it might boost the turnout among Clinton dems, who seem to respond better to low brow tactics).
I think the best course is the heavy use of working class surrogates. He needs to assemble a cast of highly visible supporters who already have street cred with working class voters. They have to stump for him and attest to his intentions and abilities to not only work for their interests, but to understand them.
In the end, if Obama makes his campaign about the promise that grass roots organizing will at long last become an effective tool for change, it will dovetail nicely with the assertion that he both understands and supports change that benefits working class voters. I don't think he would be having so much support among left/dems with high educations if he didn't have a working platform that was weighted toward working class interests.
For Obama himself, he will need to concretize proposals aimed at working class interests-- he needs to be out front on augmenting union power (i.e. changing and nullifying much of Taft/Hartly and other anti-union federal legislations); he needs to push his reform of the Social Security taxes to make them far less regressive (which is what lifting the cap on taxable income from $75k to $1 million or more is all about); he needs to address jobs and energy costs with one large green economy job generation programs, and he needs to make outsourcing exceedingly painful for US companies. Last, he needs some way to address immigration that does not offend his progressive and Latino base but which assures working class voters that he will protect the borders and preclude a drag down on average wages.
All of which can be done and done quite handily. Not only will Obama be able to do this himself, but he has one other advantage that might bridge that gap he currently has with working class voters-- the energy and talents of his grass roots support.
While Obama and many of his strategists might have trouble relating to working class voters, a lot of us who support him, write for him, contribute to him, etc., do not. If you have an understanding of working class issues and concerns, it's incumbent on you to speak out, write and become a translator/communicator between Obama the egghead and the working class voters that he'll need to take red states away from GOPigs.
So, for Obama people, let's not get distracted by Clinton-- i.e., pay no attention to the zombie behind the curtain. Let's focus on the real prize-- November.
