in November he will not be able to win the Hispanic and the White blue collar votes, so he will lose.

Of course, Obamaborgs do not want to see reality. However, they should take a look at the polls: most Democratic moderate voters will not vote for Obama after all the hate and poison that the Obamaborgs have used to attack Hillary and her supporters.

Obama is doomed!

The problem for the Democratic party ship is that it will sink with Obama as the captain.

Ummm ... Obama is hateful? I think you need to recalibrate your hate-o-meter. Hillary has come off as hateful, entitled and elitist. She's throwing the hate bombs. And both she and Bill (of whom I was a HUGE fan) have been caught in numerous lies. Need I remind your that, despite tonight, she's STILL faaar behind.

grangdm

You need to learn to read. I never said that Obama is hateful. In fact, to me he looks like a sort of robot.

I said that Obamabots are hateful, and that is a fact that has scared many moderate Democrats.

And the numbers are the numbers, you can try to spin it, but reality is showing you Obamabots that Obama cannot win in any place where Blacks cannot give him a real advantage.

It's great if you think about. Hillary is making him completely unelectable. It's a really ballsy strategy and it seems to be working. If she can make him the gimp the the party, then the supers will have a choice at the convention between two flawed candidates. Only one of which has a proven history of bouncing back from this sort of thing. Once the paint is scratched on Obama, it's over. He'll never get the sheen back. Hillary on the otherhand is like a dented pickup. You can take a wrecking ball to it but it still putters along.

First of all, your ad hominem attack on Obama supporters (refering to them as 'Obamaborgs') is rather immature and unproductive. It's fine to debate the issues, but do we really need to resort to name calling?

Second, there is a long time between now and November and a race between John McCain and Barack Obama will be very different than the one between Clinton and Obama. The fact that blue-collar workers and Hispanics tend to favor Clinton over Obama does not imply that they will also support McCain over Obama. Blue-collar workers tend to vote Democratic becase of the Democratic Party's stance on the issues; Obama's position on the issues important to this population is very similar to Clintons and very different from McCains; I'd wager that these workers will support Obama for this reason. Furthermore, come November the Democratic primary will be long forgotten so events that are impacting the voting process now will be largely irrelevant then.

Finally, a lot can and will happen between now and the general election. Obama has a lot of time to find ways of better reaching these target populations, a process that will be significantly aided by the backing of the Democratic Party. Once the nominaion is secured, Obama will have all the resources the party has to offer... those Democrats currently supporting Clinton are part of the population which the Democratic Party has been effective in reaching in the past, there is little reason to doubt this will change in the future. Clinton will also certainly come out heavily in support of Obama (recent comments by her reinforce this assumption). This should also go a long ways towards convincing these voters to support Obama. Yes, right now many Clinton supporters are saying they either won't vote at all or will vote for McCain if Obama receives the nomination. However, this is unlikely to hold up for long--feelings are intense right now, and its not surprising that these voters are saying such things about their candidate's opponent. That'll all end once the nomination is fully secured.

The Way,

Remember my words: at least 2/3 of Hispanics and 2/3 of White blue collars will not vote for your messiah.

You do not agree with me. You do not want to study the demographics and the polls. You do not want to see reality. You just want to believe that it will be different. Well, I cannot do much to convince someone who supports his argument with just "hope" and wishful thinking. Anyway, let's wait until November 5th. You will see that I am right.

And that your messiah loses the GE will be mostly Obamaborgs' fault. They have insulted, attacked and threatened all those who do not see Obama as the savior.

I too think the party will mostly heal after the primary is done.

But..

I think Hillary supporters had better hope so too. After all.Obama is ahead in the popular vote, even if you count Florida. There is simply no way that Hillary could ever even remotely win without those 13 million plus votes. And the nastier she gets..the less likely we are to think she's a decent human or ever vote for her. I mean she's basically shoving her democrat brother off his chair to get to his food at this point.

Because Hillary isn't fighting to win. She can't win according to the rules anymore. She's fighting for time to make Obama bloodied to the point of being unelectable before the convention.

And count the youth vote out. They just won't show up for Hillary. I mean they are attracted to Barack Obama and his message of change. And younger voters are notorious for not showing up if they're not excited. "Experience" is not exciting to most of the Playstation generation.

Add to that a lot of people who will simply desert the democratic party entirely. I mean the super delegates overturning the elected delegates thing is pretty yucky, and at this point, including the win today in Pennsylvania she just can't beat him in delegates. And that is how we nominate in the democratic party.

Mr. Austin;

A bit of historical perspective. In the 1960's the Democratic party was faced with a stark choice. It could either (1) preserve the Democratic party by pleasing southern democrats; or (2) enact sweeping civil rights legislation that would probably doom the party for years. They chose wisely because when it comes to race, decency in the moment outweighs the loss of power or any other dream landscape one may have conjured up that requires one to make adverse judgments based on race.

We now have a similar challenge to our basic decency. If we think that Obama is the best candidate (I realize you do not) then we must overcome the fear of facing down racists in the general election. I am comforted by the fact there are many millions more Americans who will be added to the voting rolls in order to vote for Obama than there are (what you call) "working class whites" who would have a problem with his skin color. By the way, working class whites are not as stupid as you take them to be. When faced with an extension of Bush's policies, they will have wised up by this November -- if they still have an address to vote from.

henwy:

It's great if you think about. Hillary is making him completely unelectable. It's a really ballsy strategy and it seems to be working. If she can make him the gimp the the party, then the supers will have a choice at the convention between two flawed candidates. Only one of which has a proven history of bouncing back from this sort of thing. Once the paint is scratched on Obama, it's over. He'll never get the sheen back. Hillary on the otherhand is like a dented pickup. You can take a wrecking ball to it but it still putters along.

This is what you think is great? It's ludicrous. The whole notion that the democrats should nominate Hillary because no matter what the republicans throw at her in the general she will just keep bouncing back is ridiculous. Is that the kind of candidate you want? She's a dented pickup truck - okay, so she's already damaged goods. You can take a wrecking ball to her and she still putters along - but can she ever get up to highway speeds?

I suppose you watched with pride as she proclaimed during the last debate that she had a lot of baggage that people have been rummaging through for the last 16 years. I guess you think it's great that in her attacks against Obama for defending himself against her negative ads she said that she may be negative but at least she's honest about it as though that somehow made it okay. Nearly half of the democratic voters in the primaries have supported this woman to the point where now she views being negative as an asset.

Sorry -- I don't want a rusty old broken-down smashed-up pickup truck that just barely putters along as president.

What YOU are forgetting is that a LARGE number of Republicans can't stand McCain.

I'd be willing to bet that at least as many Republicans defect from McCain as Democrats defect from Obama. I'd also be willing to bet that Obama will sweep up more Independents than McCain does.

Austin,

Again, your ad hominem attacks make it rather hard to take you seriously. Is it possible to have a reasoned political debate without resorting to base insults anymore? I never even mentioned whether I am a supporter of Obama or Clinton; I just happen to love politics (enough so that I've essentially dedicated my life to the study of it). I do support Obama now as it has become clear that he will be the nominee of my party, but that (hopefully) doesn't prevent objective analysis of the situation.

There have yet to be any major, comprehensive polls dealing with a McCain - Obama race, and even had such polling taken place they'd be of little value given the fact that the Democratic primaries are ongoing which would dramatically impact such poll results. There have been some polls gauging possible outcomes of a McCain/Obama and a McCain/Clinton matchup (available at realclearpolitics.com) and the most recent show Obama beating McCain by little more than a percent and McCain beating Clinton by substantially less than one percent. It, of cource, should be noted that both of these results are statistical ties given the margin of error, and again rather useless because the continued Democratic primaries are too much of an interfering influence.

As for demographics, I'm not really seeing your argument. Again, there is no logical reason to assume that individuals who prefer Clinton to Obama will also, necessarily, prefer McCain. In fact, that is rather counterintuitive, at least if you believe that the majority of individuals vote according to candidate's stances on the issues. I'm curious as to your logic, perhaps if you better explained your position I'd understand.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised if a majority of Hispanics voted for McCain in November, but that's because historically Hispanics have tended to support the Republican party. McCain's stance on immigration should further help to maintain this support (the Repulican Party's anti-immigration policies have been a major driver of recent growing support for Democrats among Hispanic populations, but McCain isn't with his party on this particular issue). This would be the case regardless of whether or not Clinton or Obama wins the nomination.

As for white blue-collar workers, why do you assume that they'd support McCain over Obama when they traditionally support the Democratic candidate? Past demographic voting patterns would suggest that they will vote Democratic regardless of who wins the nomination. Unions will certainly come out in support of the Democratic Party and, while union members don't necessarily vote according to their Union's endorsement, this is indicative of the general trend.

McCain has a lot of baggage and faces many obstacles, not the least of which is a fractured Republican Party (a fact that has gained little attention of late, but which is very real). Indeed, today McCain only won 72% of the vote in Pennsylvania's Republcan primary and he has already won the nomination. While no hard conclusions can be drawn from this, it does seem to imply that McCain has yet to be successful in consolidating his support within his own party. It is unclear how this will develop and play out over the coming months.

Finally, it is rather naive to make any hard predictions about the outcome in November. A lot can and will happen between now and then. One of the candidates on either side could make a huge mistake and turn the tide solidly against them. Iraq could grow significantly worse, or improve. Same with the economy. Electoral predictions are only really useful in the short-term when it is relatively reasonable to assume there won't be a major change in the status quo. How will the election play out in November? I don't know, nor do you. We'll both have to wait and see.

Mr. Adkisson,

You believe and hope that Obama will win. I use poll numbers and the demographics to support my opinion that racist America will not support Obama (no matter what). Additionally, at least two thirds of Hispanics (the ones who are not young and naive) will not vote for him either. Then who will vote for him? Young people + Blacks + liberals + people who have been waiting for the coming of their savior ? How many are they? One third of the population?

Additionally, take a good look at Massachussets. He could not win there, and if he could not win there, where can he win without a strong Black support?

He will lose, and on November 5th I want you to go to the bathroom, to take a good look at yourself in the mirror, and to ask yourself: Can I really see reality or am I just letting my dreams and hopes control my mind? You will then realize that you ARE really an Obamabot!

Good luck!

And let's all get behind the democratic nominee, whoever that happens to be.

SteveAustin,

It occurs to me that this may be an apples/oranges thing here. In the primaries, Democratic voters have to choose between Hillary and Obama. Two Democrats, arguably similar (some would say identical) in policy. In the general election, voters will have to decide between a Republican and Democrat; two candidates who differ widely in policy. So how would the demographics work in that case?

People vote differently in primaries and general elections. When policies are the same, people use other criteria. But in November the policies won't be the same, will they.

You use poll numbers and demographics to support your position? Then how do you account for the fact that Obama beats McCain in the national polls, and has for the last 6 months?

Do you realize that, before PA, Obama had about 13 million votes in the primary? That exceeds the total number of votes cast in the GOP primary between all the Republican candidates. The total number of votes cast in the Republican primary was just over 12 million. McCain won the nomination with just over 5 million votes.

Who will vote for Obama? Democrats. The vast majority of Democrats, which are the HUGE majority of voters this election cycle, will vote for him.

If the primaries are indicative of the general election, the Democrats will win. If the trend of the primaries continues as it has, Obama will be the nominee. Therefore . . .