Ideological rigor any less a whim?
by
degsme
07/10/2007, 12:40 PM #
How is "ideological rigor" any less a personal whim than seeking to reach "justice" (ie common-law judge)?
Sure you get more fans (from your narrow ideological consituency) but once that ideology falls from favor it is no more "rigorous" than the Common-Law approach (and arguably less so).
My prediction is that this court will be a "one step back" court - and if we get a DNC whitehouse in 2008 with a 12 year run, Kennedy and Scalia, both now 71 - are highly likely to retire before the end of that term. Now they may likely hang on 'til after the 2012 election, hoping to get a GOP win. But once that goes, their odds of staying on are slim. Remember that Stevens at 85 is now the 3rd oldest serving justice and by 2012, Scalia and Kennedy would both be 76. They might try to hang on until post 80, but the workload would likely start to take its toll.
Brier and Stevens would likely step down shortly after a DNC victory in 2008 (Brier for health reasons, Stevens 'cuz he's 85). And even if Stevens were to die tomorrow, the current Senate would not confirm a Bush appointee in the next session.
So there is a non-trivial chance that this ideological hegemony could be over within 5 years. Now 5 years is a meaningful period, but not that dramatic.
An consider what happens to the court when one POTUS gets to appoint almost 1/2 the court - the outcomes have invariably been fairly significant ideological course changes. And if that someone is Obama, or HRC...