I don't understand how the one-child policy is reducing the number of young workers so much that it would effect wages so dramatically, especially in light of the large surplus of rural labor. In 1980, when the policy was introduced, China has a population of just under 1 billion (981 million according to World Bank figures). Now, it's more than 1.3 billion (1327 million, according to Wikipedia). That's an increase of 346 million, or 35% over the last 28 years.

I understand that this represents a decrease in population growth rates, and higher standards of living are likely increasing life expectancy. But for a policy designed to stabilize and then decrease population, "one-child" in China appears to have failed almost entirely.

China's growth rate is now only 0.6%. When the policy was implemented it was growing at ~3%. Under Mao, the population grew at an unprecedented level. Mao believed that people could overcome any problem, and the solution to every problem was to throw more people at it... so he strongly encouraged the Chinese to produce A LOT of people. There is a population bubble associated with the two generations that preceded generation Y in China... it's kind of like our "Boomer" gereration, but much more dramatic. Once that generation starts dying off then China's population will start shrinking.

To compare the success of China's one-child policy, merely look at China's growth rate: 0.6%; their predicted max population: 1.5 billion; and the predicted year of their population peak: 2025...

and compare that to India (no one-child policy, just education and propaganda): growth rate: 1.6%; predicted max population: 2.3 billion, predicted year of population peak: ~2050?

The one-child policy was the single greatest social policy every implemented, and it's working well.

Thank you for the reply. That puts a different light on it indeed. I now know that it may have reduced total population by 300 million.

actually this policy is revised a little bit recent years in some areas there. the couple who both are the only child of their parents family is allowed to have more than one child now.

Right now, China's fertility rate is 1.75%, and it's dropped every year since the one child policy was adapted. It has continued to drop even after the revision, which was implemented in an attempt to reduce sex-selection infanticide (which is harshly punished but still practiced). The fertility rate continues to drop as more government control and influence extends into the extreme rural, impoverished communities which had resisted the one-child policy more than the wealthier urban population. The policy as it is, if it was followed to the letter by every single Chinese citizen, would average 1.5%.

The 1.75 is a little misleading as far as population growth goes: under 15 years old males comprise 53.1% of the population, while females comprise only 46.9%. If the 1.75 children/female was to be maintained, the next generation would only manage an 82% replacement rate.