There are some pretty big changes happening out there with the voters. Barack Obama recently declared himself the frontrunner in the race, although there are 10 contests remaining and MI and FL have not yet been decided. But a look at the polls shows that Sen. Obama’s lead nationally with Democrats has been evaporating. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.

The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly. Just a month ago, the Obama campaign claimed that the polls showed Barack Obama doing better than Hillary against Sen. McCain. Now such numbers are a lot harder to find.

In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads John McCain by 5 points (Hillary 51 / McCain 46) while Sen. Obama is only 2 points ahead of Sen. McCain (Obama 49 / McCain 47). This is a reversal from February, when Sen. McCain led Hillary by 4 points. The latest CNN poll also shows that Hillary leads Sen. McCain by a bigger margin than Barack Obama.

In several key states, Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain. For example, the latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 6 points in Ohio while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 7 points. In Kentucky, Hillary’s margin against Sen. McCain is 26 points better than Barack Obama’s. In Missouri, Sen. Obama lags John McCain by 14 points while Hillary comes within 2 points of Sen. McCain. In Florida, the latest PPP poll shows Barack Obama losing to John McCain by 11 points while Hillary comes within 4 points of Sen. McCain. Last week's University of Central Arkansas poll showed Hillary leading Sen. Sen. McCain by 15 points in that state while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 16 points. And the latest Rasmussen poll showed Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 11 points in New Jersey while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 2 points.

Moreover, 24 percent of Florida Democrats say that if Florida's delegates are not counted at the Democratic convention in August, they are less likely to vote for a Democrat in November, according to the latest St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll. Since Florida is the single largest and most important swing state in the country and nearly 1.8 million Florida Democrats voted in the January primary, Democrats must find a solution to allow Florida's delegates to count if we are to have any hope of winning in November.

And in the crucial state of Pennsylvania – the next Democratic primary battleground and the biggest state which has not yet voted – the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary doubling her Democratic primary lead over Barack Obama from 6 points to 12 points. In Pennsylvania, Hillary improved among men, maintained her 24 point advantage among women, and improved among younger, older, more educated and less educated voters. She leads in every region across the state (NE, SE, NW, SW, Central, Alleghany) with the exception of Philadelphia.

Ultimately, this Democratic nominating process is meant to select the candidate who will: a) be the best president – the best commander-in-chief, steward of the economy, and exercise leadership; b) defeat John McCain; and c) promote and defend core Democratic principles such as universal health care. On all three fronts, Hillary is the best choice for the Democratic Party.

Hillary is the runaway leader on most qualified to be commander-in-chief. In the Ohio exit poll, 60 percent of Democratic primary voters said Hillary was most qualified to be commander-in-chief, compared with 37 percent for Barack Obama. In Texas, she led by 16 points, and in most other states, she led by 10 points or more. She also won among those who said the economy was the most important issue – by 12 points in Ohio, for example. And in the latest CNN poll, more voters say Hillary would do a good job on the economy than Barack Obama or John McCain. Finally, in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads Barack Obama on strong and decisive leadership, managing the government effectively and having a clear plan for solving the country’s problems

It is blatant political posturing, driven by sheer desperation on BO's part, for his people to even suggest it. That disgusting performance today by former General McPeak in Oregon just shows exactly HOW desperate BO and his v. cynical campaign 'leaders' are. Some of us, yourself included I believe?, have been posting for months that HRC will be a stronger candidate against McCain in the General Election; good to see the polls finally catching up with the reality we have acknowledged for a long time now. Thanks for a fine post, Jason.

p.s. It's also interesting that the closer things get between BO & HRC, (that) his nhastiness and competitiveness are finally showing up, clearly overshadowing his POSE as one who always tries to Rise Above It.

for that, Mr. Penn.

see:

To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Thursday, March 20, 2008
Re: Polling Memo – The Shift to Hillary

yada yada yada...

So? I am a Hillary supporter and read her blogs. Does that change anything?

comprehend, 'proper attribution.'

Hillary is not going to win. Even if she did, she would lose the general because it would tear the party apart. You need to get used to the sound of Obama and McCain, it won't be long before thats all thats left. Hillary is undermining the party at this point, her effort can only bring us trouble.

She should play this out. She does have a shot a winning and she should take that shot. But it doesn't look like much of a shot. Of the ten contests remaining, she probably has Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Obama probably has North Carolina. I'm interested to see how the others play out. This race is close, it swings back and forth and there's plenty of swing left.

It's too bad Florida and Michigan decided not to do it over the right way. At least Obama was on the ballot in Florida. Even though I favor Obama, I wouldn't be unhappy if they seated Florida with each delegate as a half vote, like the Republicans did. But I have no idea what to do with Michigan.

So, it's going to be pretty unlikely that Hillary comes into the convention with the lead in either the delegate count or the popular vote. If somehow she does both, I think it's a pretty easy call - but that isn't going to happen.

Likewise, if she has neither a lead in the popular vote nor the pledged delegate count then I think that should be pretty simple, too. And that's what I think will probably happen anyway.

But, if it splits and the margins are slim, then those superdelegates are going to have to figure out which block of voters they wouldn't mind staying home - blacks or women. I wouldn't try to make that call. Somebody is going to feel pretty hurt and it's just going to be a matter of who and it don't make much difference, because in that case, neither one is going to win the general election.

When is the convention and how much time does the final nominee have to actually start worrying about McCain? That's not enough time. It doesn't look to me like either of them will come out of this without serious damage, so they might as well play this out the way they're doing so that maybe we'll have an easier time picking a candidate in 2012.

Is this you?

on the ballot in Michigan. He removed his own name, which was not required by the DNC or Michigan The only requirement was not to actively campaign.

In order to have an idea what to do in Michigan, you have to know what caused Michigan to do what they did. It seems you have all the information and refuse to accept anything else.

You are pretty much making Michigan into a swing state.

Immediately introduced to do away with the stupid super delegate system. It is an abomination to free choice here in this country.

or just a Motor City Shakedown?

I think you musta got lost somewhere down the line, because Michigan is a funky judge in this nightmare scenario.

In the last poll I saw, two thirds of Michigan Democrats wanted a do-over primary, so I guess that's why you guys decided not to do that, either. I'm sure Michigan is going to get seated one way or another, but you guys ought not try that shit again. There is a difference between J. Geils and B. Guiles.

I'm trained at birth to shoot anyone who starts a sentence that way.

Hell, if I start a political party, do I have to get approval from the gummint as to how it chooses candidates? It's the Democrats' mess. Let them handle it.

I do, however, support both ducadmo and Connie. Were I Hillary, I'd stay in this until the last dog died. She's unlikely to catch up unless something big comes up. But one gigantic thing has already emerged, and more could follow. Stick around, I say. Else, the Dems are stuck with a crippled candidacy.

ducadmo;

As I explained in other posts, 2/3rds of Michigan Democrats may want a Primary do-over; but, the Republican controlled Senate felt it was not important and adjourned for Spring Break. It is as I also explained in other posts; the state has a pretty even split between Dems and Repubs with the House and Governor's Office Dem and the Senate being Repub. You can see a similar split for the House of Representatives in Washington. The Michigan Repubs have every intention of making this an issue in the 2008 National Election. The split in voters is just close enough that independent could skew the election to McCain

I have attached a letter from Levin and Dingell Levins and Dingell’s Message to Michigan

It was published today in newspapers across Michigan. It is also attached to my post Public of Privately Funded Primary??? on how primaries are financed (public or privately) and how we got to today’s dilemma. You are welcome to read the letter or both.

The issue is with Dean and the DNC, both of which established the rules up for 5 state primaries; Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan. When New Hampshire violated the rules coming out of the 2004 special commission and moved their primary up, Dean allowed them to do through a wavier and punished both Michigan and Florida after they moved their primary dates up.

Both states had agreed to hold their original dates if New Hampshire ran their primary 3rd or 4th in line.

Michigan did not create the problem. Dean, the DNC, New Hampshire, and Iowa are the issues and are at odds with the best interests of the Democratic Party. From the 2004 special commission, the DNC had concluded:

"serious concerns that Iowa and New Hampshire are not fully reflective of the Democratic electorate or the national electorate generally — and therefore do not place Democratic candidates before a representative range of voters in the critical early weeks of the process."

You can continue to be sardonic lacking the facts surrounding this issue or perhaps you may wish to know the detail surrounding the issue and what caused it. Or you can be mindfully sardonic with knowledge of the issue! J

I prefer the later in you.