>>Michael. A demonised Obama would be a risk. Nader would be irrelevant. Nonetheless, Hillary will finish Obama off with the super delegates and the binding Democratic Party network of which Obama is not really a part of. His base is under-30s and smart independents. Blacks are a vulnerable base, as they were hesitant to sign on and now Hillary/Bill/Jesse/Al will bring them back "home".

Lugar and Hagel are reported to be open to Obama (or were last week). McCain's support is vulnerable on his age.

Did Obama get this far on the Democratic Party? Will labour, Hispanics and Blacks feel betrayed/cheated? Many loud ones will, but I suspect their hardcore Dem numbers are less than thought. Women over 30 will stick with Clinton, but I think his under-30, wired, pro-trade, and financially savvy backers still want him and may think better if he is free from the various fringe elements of the Democratic Party.

He will not win at the convention. Watch the interview with Senator Webb on the BBC yesterday. He made it clear he was thinking of moving back to Clinton when it was thought he was with Obama. Watch Nancy Pelosi. CA went for Clinton and she will stand next to her from here to the ballot.

Lastly, the Clintons' media is smiling and saying how much fun it will be to have a healthy fight to the convention finish. This is a seductive trap. Obama supporters will not go with Hillary. They will just quietly not vote in November.

I am distant from the noise, but I do not buy that Clinton would be Obama's number 2 or campaign nicely in the months ahead. Obama will lose much of what he has gained, and for whom?

It would take big balls to make it happen, and I have seen no sign that he thinks he has a choice. His unique ideas and approach would still stand out in a three-way and Hillary's campaign would not be cooking with gas. They need Obama to fuel their way to the convention and then into November.

McCain can be Clinton.