Madai:

Obama can win. All he has to do is win everything that Kerry did (easy) PLUS ohio, which Bush won by a 2.11% margin.

It's even better than that. Obama/Clinton do need to win everywhere that Kerry won (if anyone can offer a convincing argument of any state that Kerry won that Obama/Clinton can't, I'd like to hear it), and, obviously, needs to win somewhere else, too, but consider this:

Obama/Clinton stand a very very good chance of winning the rapidly-going-blue Virginia (VA's Democratic governor Kaine and Senator Webb are incredibly popular...and that's without even getting into the strong downticket coattails that will be afforded the presidential nominee thanks to the massively popular Mark Warner on the Senate ballot), and with it, 13 electoral votes.

After that, one need only look at Iowa (7 EVs) or Colorado (9 EVs) or Missouri (11 EVs) and, combined with Virginia, that's an additional 20-24 electoral votes right there, without even getting into my own home state of Ohio (or Florida, for that matter).

20-24 electoral votes to be had without worrying about Ohio and Florida! Did I mention Kerry only fell 19 EVs short?