Actually, there is very little chance. Beyond the cost of a military committment, what overrated peace there is in the country is the result of the legitimization of armed ethnic militias. The Bush administration talks about 'democracy' but when they choose to discuss how they are going to bring long term stability, the fuzzy logic almost always boils down to 'give these thugs their fiefs and they will leave us, and each other alone'. I don't know in what world you consider that 'democracy', but I seriously doubt the arab world will see it as anything other than business as usual.