Obama beats McCain.
But really, why is that even relevant? Since Kerry-Edwards beat Bush-Cheney, just like the polls predicted, we should just hand the nomination to President Kerry on a silver platter and be confident that he'll beat McCain just like he beat Bush.
In reality, Obama and Clinton are both Senators who essentially have 0 electability. But at least they can get along with the Democratic base. McCain can't get along with his own base, so either Dem is likely to win. The real question is who'd be a better President. Obama subscribes to the Bush governing philosophy that "I don't know anything, and I don't need to. I'll just hire the right people. And also, I'm The Messiah, so fuck democracy." That philosophy has worked for Bush so well that it would obviously be a good idea to continue it by electing Obama.
If Obama gets the nomination, I'll probably vote for McCain, despite being a staunch Democrat. The principles of little d democrats are more important than those of Democrats. Obama doesn't believe in democracy, as he has shown by withdrawing his name from the ballot in MI. If he wins the nomination by an overwhelming majority, I'll support him. But if the 90-delegate lead Clinton earned in MI/FL would have made a difference, I'm voting Republican for the 1st time in my life.