I agree that the figures from the poll on Web-based word processing look highly underwhelming. But one of the joys of writing about technology -- and one of the reasons why it's so easy to be drastically wrong about things -- is that trends generally increase exponentially. (People often cite Moore's Law here, though the original formulation applied very specifically to the number of transistors on an integrated circuit.)

One precursor I watch out for is how people transfer and backup their information. I find, anecdotally, that people with gmail accounts, which are functionally limitless in storage space in most cases, increasingly email themselves files instead of using a flash drive. This seems to me to lead naturally, in time, to placing one's files on a network in the first place, particularly as the number of devices we use to access our information increases.