I am not surprised at the crisis in Kenya, its
been a long time coming, but the factors have been in place for many years. 
What we are witnessing is a concatenation of events, most beyond the
control of Kibaki, Odinga or any current leader: Here are a few:


Ever-increasing population pressure ( 9m to 30m in 45 years)

Over 80% of the population squeezed onto less than 10% of the land ( 80% of Kenya is arid or semi-arid land) 

A very young population (the average age is just 18 years)

An economy that cannot keep pace with population growth

Or
The
Rising expectations of the rural and urban young and poor

Ever-increasing Urbanization 

A yawning chasm between the rich and the poor

A leadership that shamelessly misappropriates the nation's resources
and exploits the poor, primarily through promoting tribal differences

Endemic corruption at every level of society 



The result, a huge population of young people whose relatively simple
expectations, the dignity of a job and some disposable income to buy
the odd Tusker beer, watch the Premier League on TV and maybe one day buy an old 
Toyota, appear to be receding with each passing day. Long-term
sustainable improvement in the quality of their lives, is no more than
development jargon


There is an unknown number of young men without jobs in Kenya. Thirty 
years of military experience and six years in humanitarian aid work in
Africa has convinced me the most dangerous creature on Earth is a
young man without a job.
This is as true of Newcastle, New Orleans and
Najaf as it is Nairobi. It is the dignity and sense of purpose that is
as important as the salary. Men without jobs view themselves as
outside society, disenfranchised and owing nothing to their community
or society in general. 


Not only do they not have a job, there is little hope of ever finding
one. They do their best to find some means of 'income generation'
-selling puppies, songbirds, sunglasses and mobile telephone
paraphernalia, filling in potholes [and then digging them out again]
and general panhandling - only to have their noses rubbed in the mud
daily by sneering Wabenzi and patronizing Muzungu in their SUVs.

Moreover, though tourism is a vital part of the economy it also 
enables poor Kenyans who come in contact with tourists ( and for that
matter immigrant Europeans and Asians, expats in NGOs, missionaries
and the UN) to see 'how the other half live' and to contrast their own 
lives and prospects. These hugely angry young men [and some women] are
fertile ground for the seeds of anarchy and social upheaval.
The
portent to this storm has long been obvious in the high levels of
violent crime endemic to the country, not for nothing is Nairobi known 
as 'Nairobbery'. The rise of the secret and violent Kikuyu sect,
Mungiki and its mirror organization, the Kalenjin Warriors, was also a
harbinger of terror to come.



Even through the narrow prism of the TV camera, it is clear to see
that the majority of those committing acts of violence in this civil
upheaval, are young men, of every and any tribal and political 
affiliation. Their only common denominators are anger, frustration and
poverty. They have nothing so they have nothing to lose and are
focused on destroying all and everything, I suggest this is classic
nihilism. I would make Frantz Fanon's, in The Wretched of the Earth, 
mandatory reading for every would-be Kenyan leader. What we are
witnessing in Kibera and Eldoret he describes as 'catharsis through
violence'.

It is mendacious and misleading for observers to imply that this 
social conflict is primarily about Kikuyu- Luo tribal enmity. Though
tribal differences are a strong feature of Kenyan society and have beeen used by politicians on both sides to foment this crisis, it ignores the fact that Ex-President Moi, one of
Kibaki's closest advisers and both Moi's sons and the long-time 
enforcer for the for the Mount Kenya mafia, Simon Biwot, all deposed
from their Parliamentary seats, in this election, are of the Kalenjin
tribe. It is groups of young Kalenjin men, the so-called Kalenjin
Warriors who have been putting the Kikuyu to the sword. If this was 
simply tribalism, Kibaki would surely have pressured Moi and the Kalenjin leaders to intervene.


Blaming yesterday's colonialism and today's tribalism is to suggest that Kenyan's, both the leadership and the people, have no responsibility for current events and no control over their futures. It is to imply that “another African ethnic-based war” is their inexorable destiny. No amount of blaming the past can excuse the appalling leadership of today. This is the soft bigotry of low expectations. 

Nor should we load all the blame on the current motely crew of political leaders. The comfortable, educated, well-paid middle class of Nairobi, the Muzungus of Karen are keeping very quiet.