Each
year since 1985, the editors of
THE FUTURIST have selected the most
thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the magazine to go
into our annual Outlook report. Over
the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal
developments as the Internet, virtual reality, and the end of the Cold
War.
Here are the editors' top 10 forecasts from
Outlook 2008:
1. The world will
have a billion millionaires by 2025.
Globalization and
technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But
challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water
shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025. --James
Canton, author of "The Extreme Future," reviewed in THE FUTURIST May-June 2007, p. 54
2. Fashion will go
wired as technologies and tastes converge to revolutionize the textile
industry.
Researchers in smart fabrics and intelligent textiles (SFIT) are working
with the fashion industry to bring us color-changing or perfume-emitting
jeans, wristwatches that work as digital wallets, and running shoes like
the Nike +iPod that watch where you're going (possibly allowing others
to do the same). Powering these gizmos remains a key obstacle. But
industry watchers estimate that a $400 million market for SFIT is
already in place and predict that smart fabrics could revitalize the
U.S. and European textile industry. --Patrick Tucker, "Smart
Fashion," Sep-Oct 2007, p. 68
3. The threat of
another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as
the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States.
Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the
clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem
insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with
Soviet missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign
policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers.
--Edward N. Luttwak, "Preserving Balance among the Great Powers,"
Nov-Dec 2006, p. 26
4. Counterfeiting of
currency will proliferate, driving the move toward a cashless society.
Sophisticated new optical scanning technologies could, in the next five
years, be a boon for currency counterfeiters, so societies are
increasingly putting aside their privacy fears about going cashless.
Meanwhile, cashless technologies are improving, making them far easier
and safer to use. --Allen H. Kupetz, "Our Cashless Future," May-June
2007, p. 37
5.
The earth is on the
verge of a significant extinction event.
The twenty-first century could witness a biodiversity collapse 100 to
1,000 times greater than any previous extinction since the dawn of
humanity, according to the World Resources Institute. Protecting
biodiversity in a time of increased resource consumption,
overpopulation, and environmental degradation will require continued
sacrifice on the part of local, often impoverished communities. Experts
contend that incorporating local communities' economic interests into
conservation plans will be essential to species protection in the next
century. --World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2006, p. 6
6. Water will be in
the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century.
Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in
both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of
California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20%
of the state's water in the next two decades. Desalination will become
more mainstream by 2020. --William E. Halal, "Technology's Promise:
Highlights from the TechCast Project," Nov-Dec, p. 44
7.
World population by 2050 may grow larger than previously expected,
due in part to healthier, longer-living people. Slower than expected
declines of fertility in developing countries and increasing longevity
in richer countries are contributing to a higher rate of population
growth. As a result, the UN has increased its forecast for global
population from 9.1 billion people by 2050 to 9.2 billion. --World
Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2007, p. 10
8.
The number of Africans imperiled by floods will grow 70-fold by 2080.
The rapid urbanization taking place throughout much of Africa makes
flooding particularly dangerous, altering the natural flow of water and
cutting off escape routes. If global sea levels rise by the predicted 38
cm by 2080, the number of Africans affected by floods will grow from 1
million to 70 million. --World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2007, p.
7
9.
Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush
to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the
Arctic's supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests,
and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the
Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable
and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge
in the decades ahead. --Lawson W. Brigham, "Thinking about the
Arctic's Future: Scenarios for 2040," Sep-Oct 2007, p. 27
10. More decisions
will be made by nonhuman entities.
Electronically enabled teams in networks, robots with artificial
intelligence, and other noncarbon life-forms will make financial,
health, educational, and even political decisions for us. Reason:
Technologies are increasing the complexity of our lives and human
workers' competency is not keeping pace well enough to avoid disasters
due to human error. --Arnold Brown, "'Not with a Bang':
Civilization's Accelerating Challenge," Sep-Oct 2007, p. 38
All of these forecasts plus dozens more were included in the report
that scanned the best writing and research from THE FUTURIST magazine
over the course of the previous year. The Society hopes this report,
covering developments in business and economics, demography, energy, the
environment, health and medicine, resources, society and values, and
technology, will assist its readers in preparing for the challenges and
opportunities in 2008 and beyond.
The Outlook 2008 report was released as part of the
November-December
2007
issue of THE FUTURIST magazine. An individual report can be obtained
from the World Future Society for $5 in both print and online PDF
format. Information on subscriptions
can be obtained from the
World Future Society,
publisher of THE FUTURIST.