Don't need theory to tell you that the climate is unstable
by
gzuckier
11/06/2007, 9:28 AM
What has become increasingly clear is that the "climate" is not in any way stable. Over the earth's history it has bounced all over the place, pausing briefly only to wander off again in a random direction, like a pebble bouncing downhill getting lodged for a time only to take off again the next time something bumps it. There is no evidence that there is some average climate baseline that it tends to return to. Any stability is purely local, a small dent in the slope that the pebble temporarily sits in, and we don't have any way to accurately estimate how big this local stability is, and what will happen when we roll out of it. To use another analogy, it's like a piece of paper blowing in the wind; it might get stuck on a tree or the side of a building for a while, but you can't predict how long it's going to be there or how much force you need to peel it loose again. But you would be nuts to regard it as something even partially fixed in place, onto which you could hang a lot of weight. If you like it where it is, you should probably make an effort NOT to move it.