First, I think we largely see the same trends. I'm just thinking it will occur over a shorter time line than you.

Second, aberrations are the norm. There will always be some crisis, regardless of who's in office. A well timed terrorist attack could derail the Obama administration. Even if all goes well with the economy, its only a matter of time before we have another recessions. 10 years? 15 years? In addition to the Eagle's Claw fiasco, there was also stagflation and the gas crisis to deal with.

Yes Nixon had 20 years experience as a statesmen, but just six years earlier his political career was being written off when he lost the California Gubernatorial race. On a tangent, part of his success was due to Vietnam and Democratic infighting, but there's also the "Southern Strategy" response to the Civil Rights movement and his get tough on crime [read: blacks] spiel.

Personally, I think Carter's biggest problem- and Reagan's biggest strength- was charisma. Carter was a smart guy with good policies who failed at getting them across to the American people and was unable to push Congress because he lacked this trait. I see Obama as someone who truly has charisma, but isn't really using it to best advantage. The perfect example is the 'Public Option'. If he had been out to the forefront pushing for it, it would be a done deal. Health Care reform is one of the major issues in his presidency, one that he was elected to make "real change" on- its not the time for him to be storing his political capital, but to be spending it.