The tricky thing talking about congressional races- especially in the house- is that the broad national trends aren't necessarily in play on the local level. I don't disagree with your analysis at all, I'm just saying that due to big Democratic wins over the past two election cycles more of the seats at play are currently in Democratic hands.

The other part of the bad news for the GOP is that not only are they poised to lose a generation, but that that generation isn't any ordinary generation but the largest in American history- the baby boom echo.

I don't see the battle between Meghan Mccain and the Coulterites going to 2020. That's the battle being fought right now. The conservatives are going to win for now- see NY53- and will get they're candidate on the ballot in 2012. But after losing badly they'll be forced to reassess. There are other examples of the GOP bouncing back from similar nadirs- Nixon in 1968 after Goldwater in 1964, Reagan in 1980 after Watergate. Just 4-5 years ago the right was crowing about a permanent Republican majority.

While to some to degree that split will always remain, it will play out over the course of the Obama administration and the GOP will begin to revamp in 2016 if not 2014. Of course its speculation on both of our parts, so there is no possibility of final conclusions. By then, Glenn Beck will have gotten the psychiatric care he so desperately needs and Rush Limbaugh will be ready for retirement or dead [of natural causes- no threats from me].

One interesting possibility is if the conservatives split off from the GOP and form their own party. I've heard some talk of this.