True, but that's presidential politics. I haven't seen a similar analysis for house and senate seats. And while the long term demographic trends spell serious trouble for the GOP, we aren't at the point where its entirely decisive.

The House and Senate voting patterns are within those trends. House an Senate seats are either gerrymandered into safety, or they are controlled by that "swing demographic". That 25% who's vote is inconsistent with their first National election.

Consider. Dems are roughly 35% of the population GOP is roughly 30% and Indies are 35%. But the indies split roughly 60/40 Dem vs. GOP in terms of "lean". But

75% of 35% is a core constituency vote of 26% PLUS 75% of 60% of 35% = 16%. So the core Dem vote is 42%.

GOP has 23% + 75% of 40% of 35% = 10% ==> 33%.

GOP has a chance when they energize their base and turn out 30%+10%, and a mere 55% of the remaineder of voters. So in essence if the GOP can turn out their base, they only have to win 55% of the 18% Undecideds... If there is something they can demagouge they get better tractio