True, but that's presidential politics. I haven't seen a similar analysis for house and senate seats. And while the long term demographic trends spell serious trouble for the GOP, we aren't at the point where its entirely decisive.

Add to that the fact that 40% of Americans view themselves as conservative and the GOP still has some fight left. Of course conservative != republican and when it comes to the issues people aren't really as conservative as they think they are.

My prediction is that we'll be in a decent recovery with slow job growth in 2010. The GOP will pick up roughly 10 seats in the house and 1-2 Senate seats.

In 2012, the economy will be in full swing and we'll be out of both Iraq and Afghanistan. The GOP- convinced that Mccain lost because he wasn't conservative enough- will run a deeply conservative candidate who will get soundly trounced by a very popular Obama. Congressional candidates will ride Obama's coattails and the Democrats will gain back all of their 2010 losses and more.

2014 will mark a turnaround for the GOP, as after losing so badly in the previous election they'll finally start shifting back to the center.

2016 will bring a Democratic president who will be elected as a continuation of Obama. But by 2020 the American public will be sick of seeing Democrats in the Whitehouse and will elect a Republican president who runs a triangulation strategy similar to Clinton's.