Deeds has staked his whole campaign on running ads against a thesis McDonnell wrote 20 or so years ago. But since McDonnell has actually been in office and people know him, that's a pretty thin reed to base your whole campaign on. Deeds hasn't really said anything positive. I live in VA, but I haven't seen any ads saying, "I'm Creigh Deeds, and here's what I want to do." McDonnell on the other hand has run a pretty effective "low tax, create jobs" campaign.

Bringing in McAuliffe is a big mistake. McAuliffe only got about 25% in the primary vote. The Washington Post really slammed him early in the campaign with stories about how he made his millions in ways that most Virginians clearly did not like.

Considering the crappy campaign, I'm not sure you can take much from this is Deeds loses. Of course, if Deeds wins, it will be a huge victory for Obama.