CutterMcCool;

From one yellow dog democrat to another, I thank you for your response and wish to reply. I like the term "low information" voters, but am certain that they will never be discouraged to participate. This country has an unbending belief in participation in elections even when a voter has no perception.

More to the point, neither Democrats nor Republicans really want them to go away because they are up for grabs. By watching any political season of advertisements it is clear that the vast percentage of campaign dollars are aimed at people without a clue. The only limit to this kind of cynical campaigning is the risk of losing independents (blue dogs) by going to far. For example, if Obama's re-election campaign faces a well financed effort by the "birthers" he wins hands down.

I would also disagree that the approval ratings of Presidents reflect the percentage of yellow dogs who would vote for that president's re-election. Many yellow dogs will express disapproval of a president but when faced with the opposite party's option will still vote their traditional party. There are occasions, however, when yellow dogs migrate to the independent column when their views change or when the party changes underneath them. This hasn't happened in decades. It may be happening in a generational sense in favor of democrats over the next decade.

I would also venture that under no current circumstances would the vote ever split 70-30 either way. Obama's approval ratings may return to his high approval ratings or higher, but he will not win all of those votes in a head to head. The only way Obama hits even 60% is if the Republicans go completely wacky and nominate a Palin or a Gingrich. Romney, Huckabee, or Pawlenty, on the other hand would easily win 45% of the vote even against a high riding Obama.

The three biggest presidential margins in the last half century have, as you implied, averaged 60-40. (Nixon-McGovern, 61-38; Johnson-Goldwater 61-38; and Reagan-Mondale 59-41.) The important point is that the last time there was such a blowout was 25 years ago, and the reason for this is that the electorate changed and polarization kicked in.

The country will remain very split for the time being, with those low information voters calling the shots. Fortunately, Obama is probably better than anyone at appealing to low information voters.

He's a celebrity.

John