I've always had the sense that popular fiction nuke disasters, in paperback and film, were harbingers of the inevitable. When the public is willing to entertain and fund the thought of nuclear disaster, the likelihood of the unthinkable becomes thinkable and perceived as likely. My personal view is that it is a combination of prognostication, both self-fulfilling and speculative, and a resignation to events that will unfold, over which we will have no control.

I don't think we face world conflagration. Hardly. Rather, someone, somewhere will give the order to strike with a nuclear device or two. It will be regional, it will be met with measured retaliation, it will end, and there will be great destruction of lives and property. Few know how close Pakistan came to a first use of a nuclear weapon as a desperate defensive move to stop an Indian advance against Pakastani troops. Only a few reporters, and fewer editors have had any nerve to put it on the front pages - or any page for that matter.

When it comes, and it will, I can only hope it will shock the world into sanity and force us to count down to zero, not for detonation, but for the destruction of ALL nuclear weapons in the world. I don't look forward to it, but the deaths of hundreds of thousands, maybe even some millions, might be the smack across the face to wake up and smell the burning corpses.

We already know how effective and accurate the IAEC can be. We already know that major powers, like the Ukraine, can decide to forgo ownership of nuclear weapons. We already know that the only obstacle to nonproliferation, control, and eventual disarmament is political will among the major powers: the U.S., Russia, and China.

We already know that things can get far worse, because proto-nuclear countries (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) can produce weapons starting six months after the decision is made. Zbigniew Brzezinski talks about this in public and the media hold their collective hands over their ears and sing "La la la la la".

For me, it all came to a realization of true possibility when I watched the near-casual scene of the nuclear detonation in the movie, "True Lies".