He could have picked a VP that doesn't think that the VP is in charge of the Senate and he could have appeared competent in the face of economic crisis. Make those two "small" changes, and I'll agree this is a closer race.

You can't win without the base, and you can't win over independants as a "maverick" while pandering to the base. McCain was a lost cause. Maybe less hopeless than the other contender's, but he's been drawing to an inside straight from day one.